Democrats Have 92% Implied Odds to Win House Control in 2026 Midterms

Democrats are priced at a 92% implied chance of winning House control in the Nov. 3 midterms, a 66% chance of winning Senate control and a 59% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election.

The Senate figure matches the number discussed in earlier coverage of the Senate forecast. The wider index also includes House control and the next presidential race.

The three outcomes are House control, Senate control and the winner of the 2028 presidential race. The figures are forecasts rather than election results. The 2026 midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3.

In 2025, 78 House Democrats joined 216 Republicans to pass the CLARITY Act, while all Senate Democrats opposed a later procedural vote to advance it. Eighteen Democratic senators supported the GENIUS Act. The votes show different levels of Democratic support across the two bills.