Ali Martinez Lists Bitcoin Drawdowns Across Four Midterm Cycles

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted figures Oct. 24 showing Bitcoin (BTC) declines of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018 and 27% in 2022 around U.S. midterm cycles.

Martinez called them “Four consecutive cycles of significant downside.” The post did not specify measurement windows, start dates, peaks, troughs or a calculation method. Without those details, the figures do not show whether each cycle uses the same period or establish that the elections caused the declines.

Election-year fourth-quarter returns provide a separate comparison: Bitcoin gained 391% in the fourth quarter of 2010, then lost 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018 and 14.75% in 2022. The election-year fourth-quarter record measures calendar quarters, not declines around election cycles.

Separate 12-month returns after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms were gains of 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3%, respectively. Those results cover the year after voting, a different period from Martinez’s election-cycle declines.

The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is scheduled for Oct. 28, ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3.