Oct. 28 Fed Pricing Put Hold Odds at 90.6%, December Hike at 78.4%

Before the Oct. 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, market pricing put the probability of an October rate hold at 90.6%. The same snapshot assigned a 78.4% chance to a 25-basis-point increase in December.

The odds were recorded four hours before the decision, while the Fed's October choice was still pending. The chance of no December increase stood at 13.6%. These percentages captured market expectations, not a Federal Reserve announcement or decision.

An earlier October market snapshot put hold odds at 88.4% and the probability of a rate increase at 11.6%.