Fed Holds Rates as Markets Put December Hike Odds at 83%

Market estimates dated Oct. 29 put the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting at 83%, after the central bank held rates steady on Oct. 28.

Two votes opposed the October hold. The 83% figure describes market pricing, while the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged was its completed policy action. The estimate concerned a specific 25-basis-point move at the December policy meeting.

A prior Oct. 28 Fed pricing snapshot covered rate expectations before the October decision.

Larry Holzenthaler, a senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Fund, said market participants broadly continued to expect a December increase after the Fed held rates steady.