Kalshi Puts Democratic Senate Control Odds at 74% Before Election

Kalshi’s Senate-control market gave Democrats a 74% chance of winning a majority Monday, marking the highest odds for Democratic control the platform has shown since the contract began trading in 2024. The reading came one day before voters go to the polls.

Republicans had led the market earlier in its history. Odds of Republican control reached 60% in July, then moved in the opposite direction beginning in mid-September.

Race contracts shifted toward Democratic candidates during the 24 hours through Monday. On Kalshi, Texas odds for a Democratic win rose to 74% from 68.4%. Polymarket’s Iowa market moved to 50% from 42%. In Kansas, the odds of Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton defeating Republican Roger Marshall climbed to 63% from 52%.

The Senate contract asks which party will control the chamber, with the outcome slated for confirmation by the Library of Congress after Tuesday’s vote. Prediction-market odds use methods different from traditional political polling and are not a replacement for polls. Voters go to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 3.