Kalshi Markets Put Democrats at 93% to Win House, 73% for Senate

Kalshi’s U.S. midterm markets put Democrats’ chance of controlling the House at 93% and the Senate at 73% on Nov. 3, as election-related contracts passed $1.4 billion in trading volume.

The largest contract asked which party would control Congress and drew $251 million in volume. A separate House-control contract exceeded $181 million. Another market covered all four possible combinations of party control in the House and Senate, with volume above $112 million.

Activity also reached state and local races. The Los Angeles mayoral market approached $110 million in volume. In Texas, Senate contracts neared $100 million, with Democrat James Talarico at 71% to defeat Republican Ken Paxton. The state’s governor market drew $21 million, while incumbent Republican Greg Abbott had a 65% chance of winning.

Trading volume counts the contracts at their $1 settlement value, regardless of what traders paid to buy them. It therefore does not represent the cash traders spent. An earlier TokenPost explanation of Kalshi’s volume calculation covers the distinction.

Market probabilities are forecasts, not results. In Wisconsin’s August Democratic gubernatorial primary, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket put Francesca Hong near 95% to win. David Crowley won by less than half a percentage point.