Polymarket Says Favorites Won 98.4% of Settled U.S. Midterm Markets

Polymarket said its most popular outcomes on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections were correct in 419 of 426 markets that had settled, a 98.4% rate. Seven settled outcomes went against the favorites, while 78 markets were still awaiting settlement.

Polymarket also said it put results in 10 key races at 99% probability about 31 minutes before the median time major U.S. media organizations published results. It said its prediction for Michigan’s Senate race came about four hours before major media reported the result.