Bitcoin (BTC) Fell After Seven Fed Hikes Since 2016 Following One-Meeting Pauses

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded losses in every 30-day period after a Federal Reserve rate increase that followed a single-meeting pause since 2016, a historical pattern relevant to the next policy decision.

The median decline across the seven 30-day windows was 2.4%. The Fed raised rates Sept. 16, then left them unchanged Oct. 28. At 12:45 p.m. ET Nov. 5, prediction-market pricing put the chance of a Dec. 9 increase at 67.5%; that figure reflected expectations, not a Fed decision.

The comparison covers seven rate increases that came after one meeting without a hike. Bitcoin’s 30-day return was negative in each case. The historical results describe past price action and do not establish how Bitcoin would respond to a future rate increase.

The 2018 cycle had the closest timing match: two hikes were 84 days apart, the same interval between the Sept. 16 increase and the scheduled Dec. 9 decision this year. Bitcoin fell 42% from the 2018 midterm election to the December hike. The S&P 500 gained in three of the seven matching post-hike windows.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs had $1.2 billion in outflows since early October. TokenPost previously examined how an unexpected October hike could affect Bitcoin. The Fed held rates at its Oct. 28 meeting, with its next scheduled decision set for Dec. 9.