Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 76% as Inflation Stays Above Target

Odds on a prediction contract for another Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026 climbed to 76%, signaling stronger market expectations for tighter U.S. policy as inflation remains above target.

That was up from 65% a day earlier. The Fed’s policy rate is set at 3.75% to 4%, while U.S. consumer price inflation reached 3.7% year over year in September.

The contract reflects market expectations, not a Fed decision. Market participants are watching upcoming inflation and labor-market reports for clues about the central bank’s next move. The December Federal Open Market Committee meeting is another focus, with the decision dependent on incoming data.