U.S.-Regulated Exchanges Capture 89% of Q3 Prediction-Market Volume

U.S.-regulated prediction-market exchanges captured 89% of notional trading volume in the third quarter of 2026, up from 69% in the second quarter as parlays became the largest U.S. contract category.

Parlays, which combine outcomes, accounted for 44% of U.S. notional volume. Contracts on individual sports events made up 39%.

The notional-volume measure values contracts by payout rather than purchase cost. It therefore differs from the amount traders paid for those contracts.

Card-deposit data showed a different pattern of funding. In September, 55% of Kalshi’s card deposits came from 11 states without legal sports betting. Those states are home to about one-third of U.S. adults.

In the observed card data, deposits tied to people ages 18 to 24 represented 30% of Kalshi’s card deposits. Across eight tracked betting and prediction-market apps, Kalshi and Polymarket US together received 11% of card deposits, up from 3% in the first quarter.

Kalshi’s share of U.S. prediction-market search demand also rose, reaching 34% from 23% in the previous quarter.