Kalshi’s Partial Shutdown Odds Rebound Above 40% Ahead of Dec. 12

Kalshi’s contract on a partial U.S. government shutdown for Dec. 12 has swung from 46% in late September to the low 30s by late October, then climbed above 40%. The contract’s resolution date falls one day after current federal funding is scheduled to expire.

For the contract to resolve “Yes,” a partial shutdown must be in effect at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 12, 2026. The condition must be verified through directives from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) or the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). A lapse that ends before the checkpoint would not meet the contract’s terms.

Federal funding runs through Dec. 11 under H.R. 6500, which took effect Sept. 2. By mid-November, Congress had yet to complete a full-year appropriations bill.