Most Americans Oppose Election Bets as Kalshi Touts Their Information Value

Sixty percent of U.S. adults oppose wagering on election results through prediction markets, a finding that lands as Kalshi promotes its political markets as information tools.

The poll of 4,506 adults, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5, found 13% supported election-result wagers, 24% were unsure and 3% skipped the question. The full-sample margin of sampling error was ±1.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Opposition crossed party lines: 69% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans and 53% of independents and others opposed the wagers. Views were similarly negative toward other government-related markets: 65% opposed wagering on U.S. military actions and 63% opposed wagers on government policy announcements or decisions.

The poll also found that 75% considered wagering on real-world events through prediction markets a form of gambling, while 8% said it was not. Eighty-eight percent said it was inappropriate for members of Congress and their staff to wager on political events; 6% said it was appropriate.

Those responses measure views on betting, not whether people trust market forecasts or find them useful. The survey asked about support for wagering money on election results, but did not ask respondents to assess the accuracy of prediction-market prices.

Kalshi says three in four of its users watch markets without trading, and viewers outnumber traders five to one on its midterm markets. The company presents its prices as signals formed through participant trading rather than polling or odds set by a house.

Kalshi’s midterm markets now show Brier scores, low-volume labels and real-time activity feeds. A Brier score measures probability forecasts against final results, with lower scores signaling greater accuracy. Kalshi says the features are intended to make it easier for visitors to see how market prices form.

Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour described the markets as “a bottom-up signal built from the collective judgment of everyone participating.”

Kalshi said it fined and suspended four congressional candidates in 2026, citing trades on their own races. The company bars people who can influence an election from trading on it.