Bank of America Sees 30-Minute Fed Presser, Possibly Without Q&A

Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve chair to hold a roughly 30-minute news conference Oct. 28, possibly without questions, as the Fed approaches its next rate decision.

The bank expects the session to follow September's shorter format. In its rate-increase scenario, the chair would need to stress that inflation remains high and broad, financial conditions are not restrictive enough, and the economy and labor market are strong. The bank also says he would need to avoid messaging so hawkish that it tightens financial conditions too sharply.

If the Fed holds rates, Bank of America sees a risk that credibility concerns and questions about inflation complacency will persist after strong September inflation data. The bank says emphasizing trends rather than one data point might not ease those concerns, since a similar trend helped prompt the September rate increase.

If the chair declines to guide a quarterly pace of increases to lock in a December hike, the bank says markets could see renewed yield-curve steepening, a weaker dollar and a sell-off in risk assets. Bank of America maintained its forecasts for increases in December 2026 and March 2027, while saying further hikes remain possible if inflation proves stickier than expected in the first half of 2027. Its outlook joins other analysis ahead of the meeting, including Marey's October policy outlook, which anticipates a hold and three potential dissents for an increase.

The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision at 2 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC) Wednesday, Oct. 28. The news conference is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (18:30 UTC).