Survey Shows 93% Expect Fed to Hold Rates, 76% Forecast December Hike

A new survey of 30 economists, strategists and fund managers points to a Federal Reserve hold this week, with 93% expecting no change and 76% forecasting a December increase at the next meeting.

The outlook spans two consecutive meetings: respondents largely expect the Fed to pause at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, then raise rates at the Dec. 8-9 meeting. More than half also anticipate increases in 2027, averaging about two.

These are respondents’ forecasts, not a Fed policy decision. The poll asked separately what participants think will happen and what they believe the central bank should do. While 93% predicted a hold in October, 30% said rates should rise at that meeting. Those figures answer different questions, so they do not conflict. Respondents also expected at least two Fed voters to dissent if the committee left rates unchanged.

Richard Bernstein, global head of macro investing at Janus Henderson Investors, said, “Their hesitancy to raise rates is unfathomable.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, offered a different view: “This isn't the time for more Fed rate hikes.”

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to move its target range up by 25 basis points, setting it at 3.75% to 4%. Most participants considered another increase likely to be appropriate by year-end. They also said future decisions would depend on incoming information, leaving the timing conditional on what officials see next.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes Wednesday, Oct. 28. Its policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET (1800 UTC), followed by a news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (1830 UTC). The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9.