Prediction-Market Traders Bet September Jobs Growth Will Beat 84,000 Estimate
Kalshi contracts show nearly 60% odds of more than 90,000 new jobs, while Polymarket traders see roughly even odds of growth above 100,000.
Prediction-market traders are pricing in September U.S. payroll growth above the 84,000 economist consensus, with Kalshi and Polymarket contracts showing meaningful odds of a stronger report Friday.
Kalshi contracts show nearly 60% odds that the U.S. added more than 90,000 jobs in September. Traders also place nearly even odds on payroll growth exceeding 100,000.
Polymarket contracts likewise show roughly 50-50 odds that the monthly jobs gain reached six figures. The contracts are settled using official employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The September employment report is scheduled for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Before then, ADP’s national employment report is due Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
The market expectations follow a stronger-than-expected August report, which showed the U.S. adding 162,000 jobs. Earlier summer data had pointed to labor-market weakness, but the August increase indicated a rebound in hiring.
The stronger August result also gave Federal Reserve policymakers more room to focus on inflation, which remains above the central bank’s target, while raising interest rates at its September meeting.
