Kalshi Market Saw Little Chance of Anthropic IPO Announcement Before Nov. 1

Kalshi’s short-term prediction market assigned Anthropic almost no chance of announcing an initial public offering (IPO) before Nov. 1 during most of October. The deadline concerns an announcement, not when shares would begin trading. The market’s percentage reflects trading expectations on the contract, not a company statement.

The short-term contract has a different deadline from the separate 2026 IPO announcement market. On Oct. 19, that longer-dated contract placed Anthropic at 75% for a qualifying announcement by the end of 2026. The percentages describe separate outcomes, not a shift in odds within one contract.

The 2026 contract counts an effective SEC Form S-1, offering pricing or an exchange assigning a ticker as a qualifying milestone. A confidential S-1 filing alone does not meet that contract’s standard. The shorter contract’s deadline is Nov. 1.