Polymarket Puts Odds of Jensen Huang Leaving Nvidia’s CEO Role at 87% by Year-End

Polymarket priced an 87% chance that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang would leave the CEO role by year-end, a sharp rise from the previous day that highlights how settlement terms differ from Kalshi’s.

At 10 p.m. ET Nov. 11 (03:00 UTC Nov. 12), the year-end contract stood at 87%, up from about 16.5% a day earlier, a 70-percentage-point increase. A separate contract for Huang to leave by Nov. 13 ET was priced at 69% on Polymarket and 71% on Kalshi.

Polymarket’s rules allow a public, clear announcement by Huang, Nvidia or an authorized representative that he has resigned, will resign or will be removed to qualify. A move to another Nvidia role can also qualify if he leaves the CEO post within 18 months of the announcement. Temporary leave, suspension and administrative leave do not qualify under Polymarket’s rules.

Kalshi requires Huang to actually leave the CEO role, with the departure announced by him or a representative. An announcement of a future departure alone does not settle its contract. The different terms may lead the markets to settle at different times.