Polymarket Prices 40% Chance of 5-Year Treasury Yield Hitting 5.15% by Dec. 31

A Polymarket contract tied to the U.S. five-year Treasury yield put the odds of a reading at or above 5.15% by Dec. 31 at 40% as of 8:10 a.m. ET Friday, Nov. 13 (13:10 UTC). The implied probability had risen 30% over the preceding 24 hours.

The contract resolves “Yes” if the Treasury’s daily five-year yield reaches 5.15% or higher on any day from the market’s creation through Dec. 31, 2026. It settles as soon as the threshold is reached. If it is not reached, settlement follows publication of the Dec. 31 yield data.

The settlement benchmark is the Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, using the “5 Yr” entry. If the Dec. 31 data remain unavailable and no qualifying reading is published by 11:59 p.m. ET Jan. 14, 2027, the contract resolves “No.”

The 40% figure is the contract’s implied chance of a qualifying yield reading, not a Treasury yield measurement. TokenPost previously covered market pricing around a five-year yield falling below 4.10% before 2027.