MiCA Rollout Shows Limited Market Impact as USDT, Bitcoin Dominance Holds

The European Union’s landmark crypto framework, ‘MiCA’, has now been fully implemented, but the market impact has looked far more like a ‘quiet adoption’ than the structural shock many participants once anticipated. A new analysis from Kaiko Research suggests that even after key restrictions took effect, trading activity and liquidity largely remained anchored to Bitcoin (BTC) spot markets and Tether (USDT)-denominated flows.

In a recent report, Kaiko Research analyst Laurens Fraussen reviewed market conditions over an 18-month window following two major regulatory milestones: the stablecoin provisions that took effect on June 30, 2024, and the bloc-wide rollout of MiCA on Dec. 30, 2024. Using metrics including volume, liquidity depth, and session-based market share, Fraussen concluded that the dominant market structure—BTC as the primary risk asset and USDT as the main trading rail—has broadly persisted.

A key test arrived when eight major platforms subject to MiCA requirements removed USDT from interfaces available to European users. Because USDT has historically been the most actively traded stablecoin across centralized venues, the move was widely expected to reduce European share, weaken the London trading session, or cause liquidity to migrate away from regulated time zones. Kaiko’s data, however, found no clear evidence of those outcomes.

Liquidity indicators also defied expectations. Kaiko reported that on the eight MiCA-regulated platforms’ BTC spot markets, average order-book depth within ±1% of the mid price did not decline around the implementation periods. Instead, depth generally climbed through 2025, and in 2026 appeared to track Bitcoin’s own price cycle more closely than regulatory timing.

Venue-level snapshots underscored that resilience. Kraken’s BTC market depth expanded from roughly $15 million in early 2023 to about $40 million by June 2026. Coinbase typically ranged between $20 million and $30 million, while Bullish moved closer to the $20 million level. The remaining five platforms generally stayed below $15 million, but Kaiko said there was limited indication that MiCA itself became a direct catalyst for deteriorating liquidity.

Stablecoin trading patterns were similarly steady at the aggregate level. Even after USDT was removed from European order-entry screens on the regulated venues, overall daily USDT volume across those platforms held its broader trajectory. During the early-2025 market peak, USDT activity temporarily rose to around $45 billion per day, and Kaiko found no conspicuous volume cliff around either implementation date. By contrast, USD Coin (USDC) mostly remained below $5 billion in daily volume.

Kaiko cautioned that the dataset reflects global activity on the relevant platforms rather than isolating EU-only flows, meaning any localized European impact could be diluted in consolidated figures. Still, the absence of a sharp inflection suggests that even meaningful compliance-driven changes within Europe did not translate into a visible disruption across the venues’ total trading activity.

Market share figures reinforced USDT’s continued dominance. Across the full observation period, USDT accounted for roughly 70% of spot stablecoin volume, while USDC held near 28%. Euro-denominated alternatives that MiCA effectively favors—such as Euro Coin (EURC) and EURCV—remained marginal at around 1% to 2% even by late 2025, indicating that the regulation has not yet shifted stablecoin usage toward euro-native instruments on a scale visible in spot trading.

While euro-based spot trading did grow, Kaiko argued the timing points more to market conditions than regulation. Weekly euro-denominated spot volume expanded to roughly $15 billion, but the strongest acceleration coincided with the Q4 2024 Bitcoin rally, when BTC approached the $100,000 level. As BTC later retreated into the $75,000–$80,000 range, euro trading volumes also cooled—suggesting participation rose with the bull market rather than reflecting a durable MiCA-driven currency rotation.

In absolute terms, euro activity still remained small relative to the broader market. Kaiko noted that total weekly spot volume ranged from about $500 billion to around $1 trillion at the early-2025 peak, leaving euro and euro-stablecoin pairs as a comparatively peripheral share of global trading flows.

Kaiko also found that regional session dynamics stayed stable. For BTC spot trading, the U.S. session accounted for roughly 35% to 40% of activity, with the London session similarly around 35% to 40%, while the Asia-Pacific (APAC) session held near 25% and appeared the most consistent over time. In USDT and USDC markets, London remained the largest hub at roughly 40% to 45%, followed by the U.S. session near 30% and APAC around 25%—an indication that Europe’s trading window did not lose its central role even in stablecoin-heavy markets directly affected by MiCA compliance.

Overall, the report frames MiCA as a major institutional milestone that produced fewer immediate structural dislocations than expected. Some pairs disappeared from European-facing order-entry screens, but liquidity continued to ebb and flow with Bitcoin’s cycle, USDT retained its grip on spot stablecoin volume, and euro stablecoins stayed on the edge of the market. Fraussen attributed the muted transition in part to the lengthy lead time ahead of full implementation, arguing that many market participants had already adjusted well before MiCA officially arrived.