Circle Stock Drops 72% From High Despite Institutional Buying, Nomura FX Deal

Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) is drawing heightened investor attention as its stock remains under technical pressure despite signs of growing 'institutional demand' and a push into foreign-exchange settlement with Japan’s Nomura. The mixed signals—insider selling on one side and fresh buying by professional investors on the other—underscore how the market is still debating whether Circle is a long-term payments winner or a cyclical stablecoin proxy vulnerable to weakening on-chain activity.

In recent U.S. trading, Circle changed hands around $73.57, down roughly 72% from its 52-week high. The shares swung through an intraday range of about $67.37 to $74.45, a notably wide move reflecting elevated uncertainty, while volume topped 14.3 million shares.

Wall Street’s fundamental expectations remain well above the current tape. Data cited by MarketBeat and InsiderTrades showed a consensus rating of 'Hold' and an average price target of $134.18—implying roughly 82% upside from the latest levels. Yet the chart tells a different story: the stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a configuration many technicians read as persistent weakness.

Benzinga’s technical review pointed to a 'double-top' formation near $135.70 and said the stock has broken below a neckline around $84, with the MACD indicator also trending bearish. Under a more negative scenario, the analysis flagged the possibility of a move toward the 52-week low near $49. In contrast, a separate long-horizon model cited from TIKR maintained a bullish view into the end of the decade, placing a mid-case 2030 price around $340—far above near-term Street targets and indicative of how dispersed expectations are for the company’s payments-led growth story.

Adding to the crosscurrents, a large insider transaction coincided with accumulating positions from some institutions. On June 24 ET, Circle’s Chief Product and Technology Officer Nikhil Chandhok sold 489,737 Class A shares at roughly $72–$75 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, realizing proceeds of about $35.4 million. The sale was described as tied to tax withholding associated with equity compensation, and his stake declined by roughly 48%. The same day, Chandhok exercised 700,144 options with strike prices in the $25.81–$32.95 range, acquiring shares valued around $18.4 million—an insider pattern that can reflect monetization of incentives while maintaining continued exposure.

Institutional flows, meanwhile, leaned constructive. Cambient Family Office increased its Circle position by 291.9% in the first quarter to 18,585 shares, worth about $1.77 million. Rockefeller Capital Management, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, and Amova Asset Management were also cited as building or adding to positions. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest was highlighted for resuming buying across crypto-linked equities—including Circle, Coinbase ($COIN), Bullish, and Robinhood ($HOOD)—through three ETFs, suggesting some specialist allocators still see long-duration upside in the sector despite near-term volatility.

A key near-term catalyst arrived on June 26 ET, when Circle shares jumped roughly 6.9% to 7% after the company announced a USDC-based FX settlement partnership with Nomura. The two firms signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at Japan’s roughly $440 billion-a-day FX market, with a focus on helping Japanese corporations convert yen into USD Coin (USDC) and execute near real-time cross-border settlement. Subject to regulatory and technical milestones, the service is targeting an early-2027 launch, a timeline that could make it one of the first major stablecoin issuer-led pushes into Japan’s corporate transaction flows at scale.

Circle is also widening its distribution through integrations that reduce the friction of stablecoin-based payouts for enterprises that do not want to manage blockchain rails directly. Investing.com reported that MassPay expanded its integration with the Circle Payments Network to support stablecoin settlement in global disbursements. Munify also integrated Circle’s network in June, and executives have positioned an 'agentic payments stack'—automated, software-driven payment workflows—alongside USDC as a second major growth vector.

On the institutional coverage side, Aletheia Capital was cited as keeping a buy rating after Circle signed a distribution agreement with Hyperliquid that deepens its integration into trading and yield infrastructure, including revenue-sharing arrangements tied to interest income. Separately, Investing.com reported that Rajeev Date resigned from Circle’s board for personal reasons, with sources indicating the move did not signal strategic disruption.

Still, the operating backdrop is not without headwinds. Benzinga outlined three near-term risks: USDC supply has fallen from roughly $80 billion at the start of the year to about $73.7 billion, potentially pressuring revenues linked to reserves and transaction activity; easing inflation could weigh on short-term U.S. Treasury yields, reducing reserve interest income; and a prolonged 'crypto winter' could dampen stablecoin turnover and related activity.

Even so, analysts cited in the report expect Circle’s annual revenue to grow about 11% this year to roughly $3.07 billion. A separate assessment from Simply Wall St argued that USDC’s cash and short-dated Treasury backing leaves Circle positioned at the center of 'stablecoin payments,' with revenue growth projected around 21.5% annually and a possible path to profitability within roughly three years. New products such as cirBTC and the Circle Agent Stack were also framed as potential medium-term drivers if payment use cases continue to broaden beyond trading-focused flows.

For now, Circle’s narrative is being shaped by a tug-of-war between weakening technicals and a fundamental story tied to compliance, distribution, and cross-border settlement. The Nomura partnership—particularly if it clears regulatory hurdles on schedule—could become a meaningful test of whether stablecoins can capture a larger share of mainstream FX and corporate payments, even as competition intensifies from payment giants and emerging stablecoin platforms.