Prediction Markets Price October Fed Hike Odds Near One in Four

Early Thursday, hike prices on two US prediction-market platforms ranged from 24% to 27% ahead of the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting.

At about 2:54 a.m. ET (06:54 UTC) Oct. 15, Kalshi showed a 27% price for a hike and 71% for no change. Polymarket US showed 24% for a hike and 77% for no change. The readings were separate contract prices that can change over time.

Kalshi’s hike price was 16% before the September consumer price index (CPI) report, released Oct. 14, and rose to 33% afterward. It had eased to 27% by early Thursday.

The September CPI report showed the overall index rose 0.6% from August, after a 0.4% increase the month before. Prices were up 3.7% over the year through September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% over the year. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in the all-items index.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12–0 on Sept. 16 to raise its target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. An October increase would be a second consecutive meeting with a rate hike. A hold would leave the target range unchanged.

The committee’s September projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026, up from 3.8% in the June projections. The year-end estimate does not identify which meeting might bring another increase. The latest snapshot follows a prior October hike reading of 69.7%.

Prediction-market contract prices are distinct from futures-based rate probabilities. The FOMC’s next two-day meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27–28.