Kalshi Says Favorites Won 479 of 487 Early U.S. Midterm Races

Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said market favorites won 479 of 487 U.S. midterm races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, a 98% showing in the platform’s early tally.

The count includes congressional and state contests from the Nov. 3 election. It covers races resolved by the cutoff, not the full election. The percentage describes how often the favorites won within that group; it does not measure how closely market prices matched the results.

Mansour cast the tally as evidence that prediction markets can combine local knowledge from participants who have neither political titles nor large public audiences.

The figure follows Polymarket’s separate midterm tally, which put its eve-of-election favorites at 419 wins in 426 settled markets, or 98.4%. Another 78 Polymarket markets were awaiting settlement. The two percentages cover different groups of contests and should not be treated as a direct comparison.

Election trading came after a record October for prediction markets. Trading volume across those markets reached $123.3 billion that month, with Kalshi accounting for about 80%.