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Prediction Markets
69 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Prediction Markets Reach 1.1 Billion Trades in Q3 as Kalshi Leads
The third-quarter count through Sept. 25 surpassed roughly 490 million trades in Q1 and 709 million in Q2, while Kalshi supplied most of the additional activity.
· Investing
- New York Sues Polymarket as Platform Challenges State Gambling Authority
The state seeks forfeiture of Polymarket’s proceeds, restitution and penalties, while the platform argues federal law bars state oversight of event contracts.
· Regulation
- CFTC Warns Exchanges of Manipulation Risk in Political Speech Bets
A Sept. 22 advisory requires contract-specific safeguards for markets tied to what a person says, does or attends.
· Regulation
- New York Sues Polymarket Over Alleged Illegal Gambling Business
The state alleges the prediction-market platform operated an illegal gambling business, but has not disclosed detailed claims or requested remedies.
· Regulation
- Predict Brings One-Minute Markets to Sui Mainnet Through DeepBook App
Predict now offers continuous on-chain pricing in the DeepBook App on Sui mainnet, enabled by Sui’s fast settlement capability.
· Technology
- Public Adds AI Agents for Prediction-Market Trading Through Kalshi
Users can approve fixed strategies that monitor event contracts tied to rate decisions, regulatory approvals and company metrics, then alert or trade when preset conditions are met.
· Business
- Polymarket Market Shows 65% Odds of 25-Basis-Point Fed Hike
The market showed a 35% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged in October.
· Investing
- CFTC Reviews Kalshi Activity as One Ether Market Tops $5 Billion
Nearly 1 million similarly sized trades have appeared since August in Kalshi’s Ether perpetual contract market, with the CFTC weighing whether to open an investigation.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts OpenAI at 63% Odds of Reaching $975 Billion by Sept. 30
The contract’s probability rose 30% over 24 hours. It settles based on OpenAI’s valuation on Nasdaq Private Market or, if applicable, its IPO pricing and public-market capitalization.
· Investing
- Bybit Launches Fixed-Return Crypto Product With 17,000 USDT Pool
Bybit Odds offers Up/Down, Price Target and Price Range contracts, with payouts shown before trading and losses capped at the allocated amount.
· Business
- trade.xyz Opens Event-Trading Markets on Its Platform
The platform now offers event-based markets as part of its services.
· Business
- Vitalik Buterin Praises Trueo as Prediction Market Plans Ethereum Move
The platform plans to migrate from Base to Ethereum, citing network effects, global integrations and alignment with its long-term goals.
· Business
- Senate Banking Democrats Seek Public Hearing on Prediction Markets
All 11 Democratic committee members asked Chairman Tim Scott to examine consumer and financial-system risks as prediction-market trading expands.
· Regulation
- Gaming-State Lawmakers Urge Supreme Court To Review Kalshi Case
The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States backed New Jersey’s petition over whether states or federal agencies should oversee sports-related prediction markets.
· Regulation
- CFTC Examines $5 Billion Trading Pattern in Kalshi ETH Perpetuals
Nearly 1 million trades clustered around $5,500 order sizes, while Kalshi denies wash-trading allegations and attributes the pattern to market-making activity.
· Regulation
- 11 Democratic Senators Urge Tim Scott to Hold Prediction Markets Hearing
The request comes before a Republican-only roundtable next week on securities prediction markets, with a Kalshi representative expected to attend.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Prices Anthropic Ahead of OpenAI in IPO Announcement Race
Anthropic held 75% of the contract’s displayed probability versus 22% for OpenAI, with $278,366 in trading volume.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts Ether’s Chance of Reaching $2,600 at 92%
Ether gained 7% over 24 hours as the market priced in a high probability of touching the target before September ends.
· Investing
- Asia Faces Regulatory Gap as Prediction Markets Shift Offshore, Tiger Research Warns
Tiger Research warns Asia’s lack of clear regulation for prediction markets is driving users and liquidity offshore, creating gaps in consumer protection and tax collection.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets See 59% Odds XRP Falls Below $1 by 2026
Kalshi traders assign a 59% probability that XRP drops below $1 by 2026, reflecting weakened market confidence despite a recent rebound.
· Investing
- Crypto Market Shifts to Product-Market Fit as Narrative Cycle Fades: Report
Tiger Research reports the crypto market is shifting from narrative-driven cycles to product-market fit, emphasizing real usage, revenue, and institutional adoption across sectors like DeFi, stablecoins, and RWAs.
· Insights & Views
- Washington Court Moves to Block Kalshi Sports Contracts, Challenging Federal Oversight
A Washington court granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, rejecting its federal preemption argument and intensifying the state-versus-federal regulatory dispute.
· Regulation
- Hyperliquid Targets Prediction Market Duopoly With HIP-4 Unified Trading Model
Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 proposal integrates prediction markets with perpetual futures in a unified margin system, aiming to challenge Polymarket and Kalshi while expanding HYPE’s growth potential.
· Technology
- SEC, CFTC Align on Prediction Markets Oversight, Expanding Crypto Regulatory Risk
The SEC and CFTC are increasing coordination on prediction market oversight, signaling broader regulatory scrutiny for crypto-linked event contracts and emerging financial products.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Sees $33 Million Volume on South Korea Election Bets
Polymarket’s contracts tied to South Korea’s elections and presidency have drawn over $33 million in volume, highlighting growing global trading of political risk on crypto platforms.
· Insights & Views
- Polymarket Seeks $400 Million Raise at Reported $15 Billion Valuation
Polymarket is negotiating a $400 million funding round that could value the prediction market platform at $15 billion amid rising institutional interest and regulatory uncertainty.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Hit $44 Billion Volume as Polymarket, Kalshi Compete on Regulation
Prediction markets surpassed $44 billion in 2025 as Polymarket and Kalshi compete for market share through regulatory positioning and institutional expansion.
· Insights & Views
- Prediction Markets Top $20 Billion Monthly as Geopolitical Betting Surges
Global prediction market volume surpassed $20 billion monthly as TRM Labs reports rising use in geopolitical risk hedging and institutional activity growth led by platforms like Polymarket.
· Business
- Retail Traders Lose as Prediction Markets Favor Professionals, Report Finds
Citizens JMP report finds retail users underperform in prediction markets while high-volume professional traders capture consistent gains.
· Insights & Views