TokenPost topic
Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- CFTC Probes Whether Kalshi Properly Filed New Event Contracts
Kalshi identified weather-related contracts and called the filing issue minor; many of the contracts involved were not live.
· Regulation
- 1confirmation Decides to Increase Its Investment in Polymarket Again
1confirmation partner Nick Tomaino said the fund has backed every Polymarket financing round and sees information discovery as prediction markets’ lasting value.
· Business
- Judge Denies Novig Injunction, Says New York May Apply Gambling Laws
McMahon found the contracts are not swaps under federal commodities law. New York may require a gambling license or bar the listings.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Says Contract Submissions Involved a Procedural Error
Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the issue involved submissions for a few contracts, many of which were not live, and that Kalshi is addressing it.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Offers $1 Million for 2026 Midterm Prediction Market Research
The program will support up to 50 independent projects, with applications due by 11:59 p.m. ET Nov. 18.
· Business
- Kalshi Odds of 30-Year Treasury Yield Reaching 5% in 2027 Top 75%
The claim concerns a 2027 threshold and does not describe the yield’s current level.
· Investing
- Missouri Countersues Novig as Polymarket US Challenges State Rules
The Nov. 9 filings bring two prediction market platforms into separate legal fights over Missouri’s authority to regulate sports contracts.
· Regulation
- Prediction Account Takes $31,500 Furia Position as Team Leads BLAST Rivals Match
It acquired 45,000 shares at an average of 70 cents apiece. Furia led 1-0 at 10:31 p.m. ET Tuesday, Nov. 10.
· Investing
- CFTC Warns Kalshi It Could Face Action Over Contract Filings
The inquiry centers on required notices for dozens of planned contracts and Kalshi’s process for certifying new products.
· Regulation
- Polymarket US October Volume Climbs to $14.77 Billion as Combos Reach 58%
The venue’s October total rose about 266% from June. Combo contracts accounted for $8.6 billion, while sports contracts totaled $4.57 billion.
· Investing
- Warren, Merkley Ask White House About Staff Prediction-Market Safeguards
Their questions cover staff training, contacts with federal agencies and a memo warning against such bets. They seek answers by Nov. 23.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Odds of Anthropic IPO Raising Under $65 Billion Fall to 30%
The contract counts shares in the formal offering at final pricing and excludes overallotments and concurrent private placements.
· Investing
- Polymarket Sets Three-Stage V2 Market Rollout Starting Nov. 23
The revised schedule adds launch dates on Nov. 24 and Dec. 1 after an earlier tentative Nov. 2 start.
· Technology
- Polymarket Says Its Revenue Pace Now Exceeds $1.8 Billion
Notional volume on its U.S. exchange topped $14.5 billion in October, up from $4 billion in June; the venue launched in May.
· Business
- Warren's Expected Senate Banking Agenda Includes Trump Family Crypto Firms
A Warren aide also named prediction markets and listed affordability measures and financial-stability risks as potential priorities.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Sets Two Daily Notional Volume Records With Combos Near 75%
The exchange recorded $5.33 billion on Nov. 7 and $5.36 billion on Nov. 8, with combination contracts making up 75.6% and 74.6% of volume, respectively.
· Investing
- U.S.-Regulated Exchanges Capture 89% of Q3 Prediction-Market Volume
Parlays accounted for 44% of U.S. notional volume, ahead of contracts on individual sports events at 39%.
· Investing
- TwoEyes Held $10.75 Million in Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold Longs
A separate prediction-market contract on whether the United States would announce before November’s end that it would end a blockade of Iran fell from 21.8% implied odds to 17.5%.
· Investing
- Tokenized Assets Jump 125.75% as Prediction Markets Fall 8.62%
Real World Assets rose 60.65% to a $73.41 billion market cap, the second-largest gain among the listed sectors.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Jensen Huang’s 2027 Exit Odds at 17%
Nov. 9 figures put Huang’s departure odds at 30% by 2028 and 75% by 2031. A separate contract put the chance of resignation or removal by the end of March 2027 at 25%.
· Investing
- Massie Planned House Impeachment Vote on Hegseth for Nov. 9
His articles accuse Hegseth of conducting Iran war operations without congressional authorization; prediction-market contracts list deadlines through June 2027.
· Regulation
- River Markets Affiliate Registers With CFTC as Futures Commission Merchant
River Finance LLC has joined the National Futures Association and can open customer accounts and hold client funds.
· Regulation
- Settlement Disputes Send Five VAPE Markets to UMA Holder Vote
The contracts cover five FDV thresholds, from $50 million to $400 million, and the token-holder vote is expected to conclude Wednesday, Nov. 11.
· Investing
- Kalshi Entertainment Markets Reach $813 Million in Volume Through Sept. 25
The 2026 total topped the full-year 2025 figure as reality TV contracts drew questions about insider information and regulatory treatment.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Put Oil Record-High Odds at 6.5% by Dec. 31
A separate contract for April 1, 2027, carried an 18% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high.
· Investing
- Texas Moratorium Odds Span 1.9% to 32% Across Data Center Contract Dates
The listed contracts showed 17.5% odds for July 1, 2027, and 21.5% for Jan. 1, 2028.
· Regulation
- predict.fun Launches Two New Prediction Markets Tied to Nvidia
One asks whether Nvidia rises or falls over 15 minutes; the other concerns its market-capitalization rank during a specified period.
· Investing
- Polymarket Lists Contract on 黄仁勋 Resignation or Removal Announcement by Dec. 31
The market showed a 13% probability Sunday evening in New York. A qualifying announcement must be public and explicit.
· Investing
- Democrats’ Midterm Win Followed Months of Prediction-Market Scrutiny
The Senate and House proposals were introduced March 26. Warren and Curtis made their bipartisan letter to the platforms public Oct. 29 and requested responses by Nov. 3.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Account Buys About $177,400 in Shares Backing T1
The account bought 404,999.1 shares at an average 43.8 cents apiece in a League of Legends S16 semifinal market.
· Investing
- Predict.fun Market Put Lakers’ Pregame Chance Against Pistons at 39%
Los Angeles entered the Nov. 8 game at 8-2 after four straight wins. Detroit was 6-2, while a Lakers star was listed as questionable.
· Investing
- Sports predictions are gambling, CME chief says, urging crypto to focus on efficiency
CME chief Terrence Duffy called sports prediction products gambling and questioned regulatory scrutiny, urging crypto to focus on tokenization and market efficiency.
· Insights & Views
- XRP year-end $2 odds rise 1 percentage point to 12% in prediction markets
XRP’s year-end $2 probability rose to 12% from 11%. Bitcoin’s year-end $100,000 odds fell to 9%, while Ethereum’s $3,500 odds dropped to 7%.
· Investing
- Kalshi Says 2026 Midterm Contract Trading Tops $2.5 Billion
The total approaches twice the $1.3 billion recorded during Kalshi’s 2024 election cycle, across contracts spanning congressional, gubernatorial and state races.
· Investing
- Compound Partner Michael Dempsey Calls for Gambling to Start at Age 26
He said younger people may enter speculation before understanding compounding. Dempsey also said sports betting paid part of his living expenses in college.
· People
- Prediction Markets Put Rubio Exit Odds at 25.5% for April 2027
Peña's resignation announcement followed the Ueno Bank seizure and a unanimous impeachment vote in Paraguay's lower house. A contract tied to Rubio's tenure showed 25.5% odds for April 1, 2027.
· Regulation
- Quantum-Resistant Leads Gains as Prediction Markets Drop 5.52%
The 24-hour snapshot ended at 10:01 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 6, among sectors with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion.
· Investing
- Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 76% as Inflation Stays Above Target
The policy rate is 3.75% to 4%, while U.S. consumer price inflation reached 3.7% year over year in September.
· Investing
- CFTC Gives Prediction Markets 30 Days to End State Access Limits
The directive clashes with restrictions affecting Kalshi, including a California federal court bar on sports contracts on tribal lands.
· Regulation
- Prediction Market Prices Louisiana Moratorium Odds at 33.5% for 2029
Contracts for earlier deadlines showed 18.5%, 13.5% and 3.1%, respectively. Voters favored data center limits in 40 of 41 related Nov. 3 ballot measures.
· Investing