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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Polymarket Puts Hegseth at 31% in Cabinet Departure Market
The contract had nearly $190,000 in total volume, while traders put the chance of no Cabinet departure before 2027 at about 27%.
· Investing
- Waters Enters House Financial Services Chair Race With Crypto Agenda
She pledged legislation addressing what she described as Trump's crypto corruption and called for oversight of prediction markets and private equity.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Hit Monthly Record With $123 Billion in October
Volume rose 57.5% from September. Sports markets led at $26 billion, followed by crypto markets at about $14 billion.
· Investing
- Judge Bars Kalshi Sports Contracts on Plaintiff Tribes’ Indian Lands
The injunction covers any sports contracts on those lands, with 14 listed examples. The tribes must provide boundary maps by Friday, Nov. 13, while Kalshi has 21 days to report compliance steps to the court.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Prices Ether’s November $2,200 Threshold at 91%
The probability rose 45% in 24 hours. Settlement depends on Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle highs through Nov. 30.
· Investing
- Hudson River Trading Starts Kalshi Trading and Joins $1 Billion Round
HRT’s futures team is handling the activity, which focuses on short-term contracts tied to asset prices.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Gain 2.65% as Automated Market Maker Falls 7.99%
Four of the 10 listed sectors rose and six fell. Prediction Markets had $11.6 million in trading volume, while Automated Market Maker recorded $1.32 billion.
· Investing
- Baton Corporation Recruits for Three Pump.fun Business Development Roles
The roles cover perpetual contracts, prediction markets and trading terminals. Baton prefers in-person candidates in New York but may consider strong remote applicants.
· Business
- predict.fun Put Warriors at 60% to Beat Heat Before Nov. 5 Game
Golden State entered at 5-3 after five straight wins, while Miami was 3-5 and coming off an overtime victory.
· Investing
- Arkansas Accuses Kalshi of Hiding Risks and Allowing Underage Users
The state is seeking unpaid taxes and civil penalties of up to $10,000 per alleged violation.
· Regulation
- Prediction Market Buyers Spent $22.7 Billion in October, More Than in 2025
The $22.7 billion cash measure topped the $20.9 billion buyers paid across all of 2025. Notional volume reached $123.6 billion as trades, fees and open interest also rose from September.
· Investing
- OMB Reviews SEC Proposal on Crypto Broker-Dealer Rules for Digital Assets
The SEC proposal covers financial responsibility, recordkeeping and reporting. The CFTC submitted a separate proposal aimed at strengthening consumer protections in prediction markets.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Shows 19% Odds of No Anthropic IPO by Nov. 30
Its experimental summary showed 41.5% at noon ET Nov. 6, but the readings lack matching observation times.
· Investing
- Hollywood Firms Restrict Staff Bets on Entertainment Outcomes
Penske Media’s handbook covers award nominations, casting, production timelines and release dates. Kalshi and Polymarket also restrict some trades based on confidential information.
· Regulation
- Raiders Owner Mark Davis Questions Sports Betting as Markets Expand
Davis singled out proposition bets, while the NFL argues prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by states.
· People
- Kalshi Traders Ages 18 to 21 Generated $5.4 Billion in Activity
The activity ran through August 2026, as Kalshi set a default monthly deposit limit of $2,500 for users ages 18 to 20.
· Investing
- Kalshi Explores Legal Claim Contracts to Attract Institutional Investors
One concept would let investors take a position on whether a settlement increases the value of a legal claim bought at a discount.
· Business
- Ignas Urges Polymarket to Improve Prediction Markets Instead of Perps
Ignas said active wallets, open interest and transaction counts were declining, while election trading volume was below sports and crypto markets.
· Investing
- Kalshi Says Favorites Won 479 of 487 Early U.S. Midterm Races
The 98% tally covers congressional and state races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4.
· Investing
- Arkansas Sues Kalshi, Alleging It Runs an Illegal Gambling Platform
The complaint says users as young as 18 could wager on sports and entertainment events. Kalshi argues its contracts fall under federal derivatives regulation.
· Regulation
- Arkansas Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Illegal Sports Betting Platform
Griffin wants a court ruling under Arkansas' deceptive-trade-practices law and damages; Kalshi says its sports contracts are federally regulated derivatives.
· Regulation
- Bitcoin’s Odds of a November $85,000 Touch Climb to 56% on Polymarket
The $87,500 threshold carried 38% odds, up 17% over the same 24-hour period.
· Investing
- Vance’s 2028 GOP Nomination Odds Fall as DeSantis Gains
A prediction market priced Vice President JD Vance at 31.4% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 15.5% as midterm results came in. A separate market put them at 32% and 19%.
· Investing
- Quantum-Resistant Leads Crypto Sector Gains With a 12.10% Rise
Prediction Markets fell 6.95%, the steepest decline among sectors with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion.
· Investing
- DraftKings Slashes 2026 EBITDA Outlook Amid Prediction-Market Spending
The company expects the new business to reduce 2026 adjusted EBITDA by $650 million to $700 million as third-quarter revenue rises 16%.
· Business
- predict.fun Puts Minnesota’s Pregame Chance of Beating Houston at 29%
Houston entered at 7-1 atop the Western Conference, while Minnesota was 5-3 and ranked seventh or eighth.
· Investing
- Polymarket Says Favorites Won 98.4% of Settled U.S. Midterm Markets
Its tally included 419 favorite wins and seven settled outcomes that went the other way; 78 markets were still unsettled.
· Investing
- Kalshi Midterm Markets Post $729 Million in Nov. 3 Volume
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang posted on X that Kalshi’s midterm-election markets recorded $729 million in volume on Nov. 3.
· Investing
- Oil Futures Fell as Crude Record-High Odds Stood at 8.5%
West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell about 7% to $89.40 a barrel, while Brent futures declined nearly 8% to $95.41.
· Investing
- Nebraska Voters Reject Sports Betting Measure Backed by Fanatics
Initiative 441 failed 54.5% to 45.5% in unofficial returns. Fanatics’ prediction-market platform faces criticism from both parties as Democrats are projected to control Congress.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Nvidia at 37% to End November as Top Company by Market Capitalization
The contract uses market-cap rankings at the Nov. 30 close, not intraday highs, and settles by consensus among credible media reports.
· Investing
- Second Circuit Denies Coinbase, Kalshi Interim Protection in State Cases
The appeals remain pending, and the order does not require either platform to stop trading or close existing positions.
· Regulation
- Hunter Biden calls crypto apolitical, urges education to address Democratic opposition
Hunter Biden urged crypto education for Democrats and defended the laptop token’s launch, liquidity arrangements and prediction-market charity structure.
· Insights & Views
- Democratic House Win Could Shift U.S. Crypto Policy Toward Oversight
Democrats have signaled scrutiny of Trump-linked crypto businesses and prediction markets, while the SEC and CFTC pursue narrower trading pathways under existing authority.
· Regulation
- Trader Raises Democratic Sweep Bet's Share Count by More Than 50%
The Election Day purchase came before the first polling places closed. The position later showed a paper return above 32%.
· Investing
- Predict.fun Put Democratic Sweep Odds at 99% After North Carolina Flip
Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper flipped an open Republican-held seat. The odds reflected trading while votes were being counted.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Democrats at 99% for Senate, 100% for House Control
Participants on both markets favored a Democratic sweep of the two chambers.
· Investing
- Polymarket's PM Derivatives Wins NFA Approval for U.S. Brokerage
The unit plans to require customers to fund each position in full when they trade. A later move to margin trading would need further regulatory approval.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Midterm House Seat Markets Put Two GOP Outcomes at 28%
The two ranges are outcomes in one Polymarket event. The below-170 probability rose 27% over 24 hours, while the 170-to-174 outcome rose 25%.
· Investing
- Kalshi Markets Put Democrats at 93% to Win House, 73% for Senate
Midterm contracts exceeded $1.4 billion in volume on Nov. 3. A Texas Senate market gave James Talarico a 71% chance against Ken Paxton.
· Investing