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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Yemen Says Houthi Missiles Targeted Aden Airport and Presidential Palace
Contracts put the odds of a Saudi airspace closure by Jan. 1, 2027, at 13%, while odds of Houthi forces entering Aden by Dec. 31 stood at 16.5%.
· Investing
- Polymarket Launches 15-Minute Up-or-Down Markets for Gold and Silver
The wider expansion spans equities, commodities and foreign exchange. Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar said traders can take positions across a growing range of those markets.
· Business
- Coinbase Net Income Jumps 66% as Prediction Markets Top $200M Annualized
Total revenue fell 35% to $1.22 billion, while adjusted net income was $78 million.
· Business
- Polymarket Developers Delay Protocol V2 Launch to Nov. 9
The revised date moves the planned release past U.S. midterm election week. A final rollout schedule is expected in the coming days.
· Technology
- Polymarket Gives Ether (ETH) 3% Odds of Reaching $2,400 by Oct. 31
The contract’s displayed probability fell 42% over 24 hours. Ether traded at $2,234.25 at 10:51 a.m. ET (14:51 UTC), down 4.44% over the same period.
· Investing
- Coinbase Q3 Transaction Revenue Nearly Matched Subscription and Services Revenue
Subscription and services revenue made up 49% of net revenue in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Net income was $718.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $332.9 million.
· Business
- OKX Challenge Had Three Participants at Seven Correct Calls on Oct. 30
Five stock-direction questions remained open. OKX marked its Netflix earnings call “Yes” as the shares fell 5.31% in the first full trading session after results.
· Business
- XRP year-end $2 odds fall 8.5 percentage points in a day to 20.5%
XRP's year-end $2 probability fell to 20.5% from 29%. Bitcoin's year-end $100,000 odds dropped to 14%, while Ethereum's $3,500 probability rose to 11%.
· Investing
- Tonomy Says It Applied for CFTC Designated Contract Market Registration
The Panama-registered company says its platform is still in development and is planned to focus initially on short-term cryptocurrency price markets.
· Regulation
- Coinbase Says CFTC Approved It to List Its Own Prediction-Market Contracts
The business surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue in Q3 as daily traders climbed more than 60% from the previous quarter.
· Regulation
- Predict Pro Raises $4 Million to Build a DEITIES-Powered AI Agent
DuckDao, Becker Ventures and M2M Capital backed the round, which will also fund the platform’s global ecosystem.
· Business
- Polymarket Market Prices Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 65% Chance of Reaching $100 by End of 2026
The probability rose 45% over 24 hours. HYPE traded at $92.30, up 16.65% over 24 hours, as of 04:54 UTC.
· Investing
- User Says Polymarket Requires ID and Release for Some Incident Refunds
The claim challenges the terms against Polymarket’s promise to fully repay affected traders after a third-party provider breach.
· Technology
- Five Web3 Prediction-Market Projects Show Different Models in 2026
Coinbase’s prediction markets topped $200 million in annualized revenue in Q3, while the five projects range from exchanges to shared infrastructure.
· Technology
- SignalMarkets Announces Prediction Markets Platform and Nov. 3 Summit
The free Boston and online event begins at 6 p.m. ET, with registration required and in-person seating limited.
· Business
- One Polymarket Account Withdrew at Least $2.7 Million Across 710 Wallets
Polymarket restricted international trading during its investigation and said its U.S. platform was not compromised.
· Technology
- Coinbase Returns to Profit as Q3 2026 Total Revenue Falls 35%
Net income climbed 66% to $719 million, while subscription and services made up 49% of net revenue.
· Business
- Kalshi Senate Package Faces Risk From Different Settlement Triggers
Control contracts may resolve after specified media calls, while seat-count contracts use the Senate’s composition on Feb. 1, 2027, or a later date when that data is available.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Oklahoma Data Center Moratorium Odds at 39.5%
A Jan. 1, 2029 contract on Oklahoma showed 39.5% odds, while its Louisiana counterpart stood at 28.5%. U.S. power-sector carbon emissions could rise 42% by 2030 amid data center growth.
· Investing
- SEC Enforcement Director Flags Prediction Markets for Insider Trading
Trades tied to listed companies’ performance indicators or earnings measures may fall under SEC oversight; Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. business are primarily regulated by the CFTC.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Investigates Profitable Bets Before Israel's Polls Closed
Hundreds of newly created accounts backed Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud before polls closed Tuesday. Some accounts later cashed out more than $100,000 combined.
· Investing
- Kalshi Holds 76% of Tracked Volume as Polymarket US Grows 66%
The 30-day count reached $120.3 billion in face-value contracts, while traders paid $29 billion. A separate Q3 figure put Polymarket’s two venues at 27% of dollars paid.
· Investing
- Utah Files 14-Count Gambling Case Naming Kalshi Founders
The filing lists 12 felony counts tied to online gambling promotion and one misdemeanor count. Its numbered charges identify KalshiEX LLC as the defendant.
· Regulation
- Kalshi and Polymarket US Top Monthly Volume Records Before Month-End
October month-to-date figures put Kalshi at about $65 billion and Polymarket US at $10 billion. The totals do not identify how much activity came from election contracts.
· Investing
- Kalshi Raises $1 Billion in Round Valuing It at $40 Billion
Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management co-led the round. Kalshi plans to use the funds to expand beyond prediction markets.
· Business
- Kalshi Raises $1 Billion in Round Co-Led by Sequoia, Wellington
The Series G values the U.S. prediction-market platform at $40 billion, up from $22 billion in May.
· Business
- Binance Wallet Schedules PREDICT Token Trading on Alpha for Oct. 30
Prime Sale Key holders will be able to check their PREDICT balances and trade once the token enters circulation.
· Investing
- Phantom Announces 15-Minute Bitcoin Markets for U.S. Kalshi Rollout
The announced lineup puts short-window crypto contracts in the app’s Predict tab alongside sports, economics, politics and current events.
· Investing
- Australia’s ASIC Has Received No Prediction Market Applications
Chair Sarah Court compared the platforms with banned binary options and said local users lack financial-regulation protections.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Drop 6.87% as Tokenized Private Credit Gains 0.49%
At 12:13 a.m. ET Oct. 29, Tokenized Private Credit had a $26.56 billion market capitalization, while Prediction Markets stood at $4.84 billion.
· Investing
- Utah Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi and Co-Founders Over Alleged Online Gambling
The 14-count case includes 13 felonies and one misdemeanor. Kalshi called the move “wild overreach” and said it would contest the charges in court.
· Regulation
- Bernstein Sees Three Robinhood Businesses Contributing About 25% of Revenue by 2028
StoneX kept its $170 price target, while Bernstein retained its $160 target after Robinhood’s third-quarter results missed expectations.
· Business
- Ibis Emerges From Stealth With $250 Million FalconX Credit Line
Ibis will handle origination, tokenization, risk management and servicing, starting with crypto and prediction markets.
· Business
- Kalshi CEO Says Exchange Would Accept a 21-Year Minimum Age
Tarek Mansour said Kalshi is discussing user protections with regulators, including a $2,500 monthly deposit cap for customers under 21.
· Regulation
- Mike Alfred Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $100,000 By Thanksgiving
His Oct. 27 post did not give a valuation model or identify a catalyst for the target.
· Investing
- CFTC Renews Probe Into Polymarket’s U.S. Access Controls
The review covers location checks, U.S. advertising and customer protections on Polymarket’s U.S. platform.
· Regulation
- Predict.fun Sets PREDICT Supply at 1 Billion, With 16% Unlocked at TGE
Predict.fun assigned 50.95% of supply to ecosystem and community; its first-season airdrop totals 70 million tokens.
· Business
- NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Exchanges, Signs CFTC MOU
Both platforms will receive NBA data, U.S. marketing rights and promotional activations, while agreements bar league and team personnel from trading NBA event contracts.
· Business
- Polymarket Puts Ether's October $2,200 Touch Odds at 20%
The contract uses Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle lows and covers Oct. 1 through Oct. 31 in ET.
· Investing
- Polymarket’s Top Sports Account Earned $12.25 Million Since April 2026
The account, swisstony, opened about 184,000 positions across more than 113,000 markets and put roughly $657 million into trades.
· Investing