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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Decision Desk HQ Calls Talarico Winner in Historic Texas Senate Race
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.18% with vote counting incomplete; an estimated 27% of U.S. AI data center capacity, measured in gigawatts, is concentrated in Texas.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Favored Democrats to Win Both Chambers
Polymarket and Kalshi showed Democrats with at least 75% odds for Senate control and 94% odds for the House in early Tuesday afternoon readings on Nov. 3.
· Investing
- Estimated Kalshi Parlay Losses and Fees Exceeded $1 Billion Since September 2025
The estimate includes about $609 million in net prediction losses and roughly $400 million in fees on about $7.1 billion in wagers.
· Investing
- KuCoin Highlights 33% Institutional and Broader-Economy Blockchain Revenue Share
Prediction-market fees rose to 19 times their year-earlier level and topped $1.5 billion, while crypto card spending tripled to $3.4 billion.
· Business
- Ballon d’Or Owner Probes Claims After Bets Match Men’s Top Five
Twelve Polymarket accounts collectively wagered $264,000 on outcomes consistent with the final order, but the bettors and any source of advance information remain unknown.
· Regulation
- Polls Put Democrats Ahead 8.9 Points Before Nov. 3 Midterms
A separate market priced a Democratic House takeover at 96%. A 3.5-point polling overestimate would still leave Republicans in control of the Senate.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Buys Contracts on Democrats Not Controlling Both Chambers
The account had $82,500 in cumulative losses. The contract settles on control of the House and Senate after the Nov. 3 midterms.
· Investing
- Polymarket Midterm Odds Rise 10 Percentage Points as Trader Adds Hyperliquid Position
On election eve, a trader put about $84,200 into positions tied to a congressional-control outcome, then opened a new Hyperliquid position about six hours later.
· Investing
- CRSHMARKET Raises $3.5 Million to Build a Live Prediction Market
The Monad-powered product is designed to let users forecast outcomes in live content and settle predictions within 60 seconds.
· Business
- Markets Put Democrats' Chance to Control Both Chambers at 74% to 78%
Polymarket and Kalshi had more than $158 million in combined volume; separate Senate markets gave three Democratic candidates odds between 73% and 78%.
· Investing
- Kalshi Puts Democratic Senate Control Odds at 74% Before Election
The market reached its highest level for Democratic control since opening in 2024, while odds in several individual Senate races also moved toward Democrats over the previous 24 hours.
· Investing
- Polymarket Shows 84% Odds of XRP Reaching 1.20 USDT or Lower
The contract tracks thresholds reached during November, and its separate upside and downside outcomes can both occur before Nov. 30.
· Investing
- Estimated Prediction-Market Fees Top $1.5 Billion in Q3
The sector’s estimated fees were 19 times the year-earlier total, with Kalshi and Polymarket accounting for most of the amount. Kalshi also partnered with the Philadelphia 76ers, the first NBA team to do so.
· Investing
- Illinois Appeals Order Limiting State Rules on Swaps at CFTC Venues
The Oct. 30 injunction bars enforcement of specified licensing, fee and tax provisions for swaps, including sports event contracts, listed on or available through CFTC-regulated entities.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Trader Douglas Campbell Tops $800,000 in Cumulative Profits
He ranked sixth among the platform’s election traders.
· Investing
- Kalshi Raises $1 Billion at $40 Billion Valuation in Series G
Wellington Management and Sequoia Capital co-led the round as Kalshi plans international expansion and new trading products.
· Business
- Kalshi Prices Democratic Sweep at 71% Ahead of Nov. 3 Midterms
The congressional balance-of-power market’s figure was a market price, not an election result.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts 88% Odds on WTI Falling to $95 in November
The probability reading rose 26% over 24 hours and stood at 10:08 a.m. ET Monday.
· Investing
- [Crypto dealbook] October funding reaches $1.85 billion as Kalshi takes 80% of weekly total
October funding totaled $1.85 billion across 51 rounds. Kalshi's $1 billion Series G accounted for 80% of disclosed funding during October 26–November 1.
· Investing
- OKX Sets EPS Thresholds for Apple, Palantir Earnings Contracts
Separate contracts compare each stock’s first full regular-session close after earnings with its preceding close.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Record $123.3B October Volume as Kalshi Takes About 80%
Kalshi’s tally counts each contract at its full $1 settlement value, so it does not equal the cash traders put in.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Buys 493,551.7 Shares on GOP Senate Control
The account's average opening price was 29.7 cents per share, and its cumulative losses exceeded $600,000.
· Investing
- Election Markets Need Multiple Results to Show Forecast Accuracy
A last trade may differ from the price currently available, and one election cannot establish how reliably markets forecast results over time.
· Investing
- Polymarket Gives Ether a 92% Chance of Touching $2,300 in November
The market’s probability rose 44% over 24 hours. The contract settles using one-minute Binance ETH/USDT candles.
· Investing
- Prediction Market Traders Canvass Voters for Midterm Trading Edge
Douglas Campbell has more than $800,000 in Kalshi profits, while David Bensoussan holds a Polymarket position worth more than $280,000 on Democrats winning the House.
· Investing
- Kalshi Market Puts Democratic Midterm Sweep Odds at About 70%
The forecast covers a Democratic win in both the House and Senate; it is not an election result.
· Investing
- Binance Audit Between Prediction Markets Module and Main-Site Wallet Continues
Co-CEO 何一 said the review remains in progress and will be pushed back somewhat in priority.
· Technology
- KuCoin Adds Polymarket Prediction Markets to Its App in Version 5.0.1
The update brings in-app access to eligible users in supported regions.
· Technology
- Polymarket Puts GPT Astra 6.1+ Release Odds at 44% Before Nov. 15
The contract showed a 65% chance of a release before Nov. 30. Both readings were recorded at 2:28 a.m. ET on Nov. 1.
· Investing
- Screenshots and Videos About 赵长鹏 Can Be Faked, He Says
He called the third image in a post he quoted a fake chat record and said he could not verify the other screenshots.
· People
- Riyadh Airport Records 94% Departure Cancellations After Houthi Strike
The cancellations covered Oct. 10-27. Limited service resumed Oct. 25, but the rate remained high through the end of the period.
· Investing
- Thunder Win Probability Is 27% on predict.fun as Rockets Lead After First Quarter
Houston led 35-26 after one quarter of Saturday’s 8:30 p.m. ET game; it entered at 5-1, while Oklahoma City was 4-1.
· Investing
- Coinbase Posts $719 Million Profit as Q3 Revenue Falls 35%
Subscription and services accounted for 49% of net revenue, while prediction markets surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue.
· Business
- XRP year-end $2 odds rise 3 percentage points to 18% in prediction markets
XRP's probability of reaching $2 by year-end rose to 18% from 15%. Bitcoin's year-end $100,000 odds fell to 13%, while Ethereum's $3,500 probability slipped to 8%.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put SpaceX-Tesla Merger Odds at 18.5% by Year-End
The contract for an announcement by Jan. 1, 2028, was at 66.5%, while the year-end probability had fallen from 20% in recent days.
· Investing
- Australia’s ASIC Questions Public Interest of Retail Prediction Markets
The regulator says binary event contracts can resemble bets and raise integrity concerns, but its statement does not impose a new ban.
· Regulation
- Oracle Category Leads Crypto Sector Gains With 7.93% Rise
x402 Ecosystem gained 7.89%, while GambleFi fell 3.46%. The snapshot was taken at 11 p.m. ET Oct. 30 (03:00 UTC Oct. 31).
· Investing
- Polymarket Trader Bets Nearly $170,000 on HLE Against G2
The two positions each showed a $600 floating gain before the best-of-three match, scheduled for about 6:30 p.m. ET Friday.
· Investing
- Warren and Curtis Ask Kalshi, Polymarket About Election Controls
Their Oct. 29 letter seeks details on insider trading, manipulation and bets based on material nonpublic information, with responses due Nov. 3.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Reviews Israel Election Wallets as 101 Accounts Funded That Day
The three main Israel election markets recorded about $106.4 million in combined trading volume by Friday.
· Investing