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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Swisstony Led Polymarket's Earnings Tally With About $12.25 Million Since April
The account put about $657 million into roughly 184,000 positions across more than 113,000 markets.
· Investing
- Gemini Traders Put Bitcoin’s Chance of Being Above $80,000 at 88% for the Oct. 27 Cutoff.
The estimate was 36% earlier that morning, a 52-percentage-point increase.
· Investing
- CFTC Sues Utah in Prediction Market Fight, Marking 10th State Case
Utah sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna-linked trading firms in October before the CFTC filed its case.
· Regulation
- CFTC Probes Whether Polymarket Breached 2022 U.S. User Ban
The review spans U.S. access controls, advertising, and customer admission and protections on the company’s U.S. platform.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Outlines Political-Power Index in S&P Dow Jones Partnership
Kalshi’s existing American Power Index also tracks political power, but the company has not said whether the new concept would use that index.
· Business
- Millennium Develops Tool to Use Prediction Market Data in Trades
The hedge fund, with about $97 billion under management, is developing a tool for portfolio managers. It has not begun trading prediction market contracts directly.
· Business
- NEXTPredict’s JFK Hedge Resolves No as Summit Debates Market Limits
The $12,000 Kalshi contract covered cancellations across arrivals and departures at JFK. Speakers also questioned how much confidence journalists should place in market prices.
· Business
- Myriad Voids 10 Prediction Markets After Admin Wallet Compromise
The operator promised automatic refunds to holders on both sides, calculated at pre-attack prices minus any winnings already claimed.
· Technology
- Oklahoma Data Center Moratorium Contract Prices 21% Odds for Jan. 1, 2028
The 2028 price was described as little changed from a week earlier, while the term table showed different odds for other dates.
· Regulation
- Predict.fun Pledges Full Reimbursement for Affected Users’ Direct Losses
Unauthorized transfers totaled about 400,000 Tether (USDT). Predict.fun said a preliminary investigation points to a possible compromise of a third-party-hosted API documentation site.
· Technology
- Robinhood’s Q3 Crypto Transaction Revenue Falls to $120 Million
Earnings per share came in at 51 cents, below a 55-cent analyst consensus. Options and event contracts helped lift total transaction-based revenue about 19% to $867 million.
· Business
- CoreWeave Five-Year CDS Spread Falls to 1,041.4 Basis Points
A bankruptcy-announcement contract tied to Jan. 1, 2028, was priced at 11.5% YES, down from 12% a day earlier.
· Investing
- OpenAI Offers Discounts Up to 40% to Attract Anthropic Customers
Prediction-market contracts listed OpenAI bankruptcy odds of 7.5% for Jan. 1, 2028, 16.5% for Jan. 1, 2029, and 19.5% for Jan. 1, 2030.
· Business
- Polymarket Says It Investigated Dozens of Midterm Election Bets
A 16-person investigations unit is using a new system that draws on public data, financial partners and statistical models to monitor election trading.
· Regulation
- Two Premier League Bets End at Zero With $2.6 Million in Displayed Losses
The positions backed Manchester City and Chelsea to win on Oct. 24. The displayed losses cover those bets, not the accounts’ overall trading results.
· Investing
- Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $82,500 in October Fall to 36%
The contract’s probability was down 20% over 24 hours and is based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs through Oct. 31.
· Investing
- Ethereum year-end $3,500 odds rise 3 percentage points in a day to 15%
Ethereum's year-end $3,500 probability rose to 15%, while Bitcoin's $100,000 odds reached 20%. XRP's probability of reaching $2 fell 5 percentage points to 22%.
· Investing
- Tokenized Assets Rise 118.44% as Prediction Markets Fall 14.65%
Five sectors rose and five fell in the snapshot. Tokenized Assets had a $49.26 billion market cap, while Prediction Markets stood at $5.22 billion.
· Investing
- Prediction Market Lists 13% Odds for a SpaceX-Tesla Merger Announcement by Dec. 31
Later contract deadlines carried odds ranging from 24.5% for Feb. 1, 2027, to 63% for Jan. 1, 2028.
· Investing
- Lula Wins Brazil Election After Polymarket Put His Odds Near 20%
The market gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance before the vote. TxODDS co-founder Einar Knobel said its volume was 4.5% of Polymarket’s 2024 U.S. presidential election market.
· Investing
- Kalshi Market Saw Little Chance of Anthropic IPO Announcement Before Nov. 1
A separate Kalshi contract for a qualifying IPO announcement by year-end placed Anthropic at 75% on Oct. 19.
· Investing
- Polymarket U.S. Market Tops 74 Million October Trades for Monthly Record
The count was 15% higher than September’s total, with October still underway.
· Investing
- NBA Names Kalshi and Polymarket Preferred Prediction Market Partners
Kalshi’s agreement includes access to official NBA data and league branding. Polymarket also received preferred-partner status.
· Business
- CFTC and NBA Sign Data-Sharing Pact for Basketball Prediction Markets
The MOU calls for routine communication on integrity issues and aims to support fair, transparent markets tied to the sport.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Becomes a Preferred Platform for S&P Dow Jones Indices Event Contracts
The arrangement also gives S&P Dow Jones Indices preferred-provider status for indexes built using Kalshi event-contract data.
· Business
- X User SEVEN Shares Platform User Loss Ranking
The ranking names trading and prediction platforms, but its percentages do not establish customer outcomes.
· Investing
- New York Gaming Commission Seeks Court Order to Enforce Kalshi Subpoenas
The petition seeks records on Kalshi’s sports contracts, under-21 access, advertising and corporate structure as the state weighs possible civil penalties.
· Regulation
- Houthi Attacks Ground 86% of Scheduled Flights at Riyadh Airport
The Houthi movement claimed another strike after Riyadh’s main airport tried to resume operations. A market contract on a Saudi airspace closure by Jan. 1, 2027, was priced at 20.5% YES.
· Investing
- Lula’s Runoff Win Prompts Debate Over Prediction Market Odds
Kalshi odds swung during the vote count, while Polymarket settled its Brazil election contract in Lula’s favor.
· Investing
- Kalshi Files Admissions Contracts Covering 22 U.S. Colleges
Separate filings propose markets comparing Harvard's admission rate with those of other Ivy League schools. The two sets of contracts use different data to determine payouts.
· Investing
- Polymarket Odds Put Predict.fun Token Launch Before Oct. 31 at 22%
The probability rose 10% in 24 hours, while a separate contract for a launch before Nov. 30 stood at 97%, up 14%.
· Investing
- Tokenized Assets Falls 54.56% as Prediction Markets Gain 3.23%
The comparison covered categories with market caps of at least $2 billion. Their classifications overlap, so the figures cannot be added together.
· Investing
- Account Takes $57,000 Position on G2 to Beat TES at League of Legends Worlds
The account bought 110,839.9 G2 shares at an average opening price of 51.6 cents. Third Swiss-round matches are best-of-one.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts WTI’s Odds of Topping $110 at 31% for Rest of October
The figure is a contract probability, not a quoted WTI price. Trump also said oil prices would fall soon.
· Investing
- XRP year-end $2 odds slip 1 percentage point to 23% in prediction markets
XRP's year-end $2 probability slipped to 23%, while Bitcoin's $100,000 odds fell to 18%. Ethereum's year-end $3,500 probability rose to 15%.
· Investing
- Limitless Contract Study Finds Close Calibration in Nine of 10 Bands
About 85% of the 2,681 settled contracts were sports markets, while separate Kalshi research measured rate forecasts against federal funds futures.
· Investing
- Polymarket Fed Hold Position Shows $37,100 Gap in Listed Terms
The account held 377,658.3 shares at a reported average opening price of 85.5 cents. Those terms imply about $322,900 in contract value against a listed $360,000 purchase amount.
· Investing
- Polymarket Contract Shows $ANT Leading Anthropic Ticker Market
The contract showed $ANTH at 27% and listed $157,941 in total volume. Anthropic has not announced an IPO date or ticker.
· Investing
- Polymarket Wallet Opens $50,000 Position on AL to Beat TES
The contracts opened at an average price of 64 cents. AL and TES entered the second Swiss-stage round with 0-1 records.
· Investing
- Prediction-Market Account Spends $192,000 on Vitality Win Contracts
The account bought 230,000 shares at an average price of 83.4 cents as Vitality led 9z by one map in their best-of-three match.
· Investing