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Federal Reserve
688 TokenPost stories are tagged Federal Reserve. The newest appear first.
Latest Federal Reserve stories
- U.S. Prices Rose 31.3% Since April 2020, Outpacing Wage Growth
Average hourly earnings rose 25.9% over the same period. CPI inflation has stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months.
· Business
- Democrats’ Senate Control Could Constrain Trump’s Fed Appointments
Elizabeth Warren is expected to lead the Senate Banking Committee, putting Fed nominees under closer scrutiny as the central bank’s independence remains at issue.
· Regulation
- Democrats’ Senate Win Could Strengthen Federal Reserve Independence
Elizabeth Warren is expected to lead the Senate Banking Committee and scrutinize nominees seen as too deferential to the White House.
· Regulation
- Fed Rate-Hike Odds for December Rise to 76.9% After Election
Markets priced a 23.1% chance that rates would remain unchanged, while the hike probability had previously stood at 70%.
· Investing
- U.S. Treasuries Rise as Investors Weigh Midterm Gridlock and $5,000 Plan
Falling stocks separately supported demand for Treasuries, while investors also considered how AI regulation might affect growth and Fed rate hikes.
· Investing
- Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Could Stay Weak Until Fed or Banks Expand Balance Sheets
His post gave no timeline or balance-sheet threshold and did not report a policy change or new lending.
· Investing
- Gold Falls to $3,900 as Investors Weigh U.S. Midterm Results
Spot gold recovered slightly after touching the level, while elevated Treasury yields, a firm dollar and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to limit its rebound.
· Investing
- Thielen Says Options Trading Has Made Bitcoin’s Sharpest Rallies Less Common
He projects $90,000 for Bitcoin by year-end 2026, after a possible dip into the mid-to-high $70,000s. He estimates market makers account for as much as half of roughly $60 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
· Investing
- U.S. Job Openings Reach 7.523 Million in September, Beating Forecast
The prior month’s figure was revised to 7.19 million from 7.079 million.
· Investing
- Ahuja Says Bitcoin Has Passed Its Cycle Low as Policy Risks Persist
He expects a gradual recovery with intermittent corrections. Ahuja said the U.S. election’s effects on liquidity and interest rates matter more than its outcome alone.
· Insights & Views
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute Says Stocks Gained in Last Six Fed Hike Cycles
Emerging markets led three cycles, commodities two and developed markets outside the U.S. one; no asset class outperformed consistently.
· Investing
- Strategists Keep Bearish Dollar View as Strength Risk Rises
Their one-year outlook changed little from early October, even as respondents saw a growing chance that the dollar would outperform forecasts.
· Investing
- Trump Links Fed Rate Cuts to Goal of Balancing Federal Budget
Trump has also called for interest rates of 1% or less.
· Regulation
- Treasury Assumes $150 Billion Cash Increase in First Quarter
The assumed rise follows a $134 billion fourth-quarter decline measured from actual September cash to an $850 billion year-end balance. Treasury also estimates $800 billion in first-quarter borrowing.
· Investing
- Bitcoin's Available Price Record Covers Only the 2020 U.S. Recession
The available Bitcoin price series begins Dec. 1, 2014, years after the Great Recession ended.
· Investing
- S&P 500 Logged Gains After 19 Midterms, Averaging 15.1%
The 19-period record covers the 12 months after each election; a separate 21-period measure tracks November through June and averaged 16.6%.
· Investing
- Jay Hatfield Urges Fed to Focus on Core Inflation in Rate Decisions
Hatfield says Fed policy primarily affects sectors sensitive to interest rates, especially housing, even when oil prices drive broader inflation.
· Insights & Views
- JoAnne Bianco Says Labor, Demand and Financial Conditions Could Cut Fed Hike Odds
Money markets priced a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point increase in December.
· Investing
- Divided Government Cases Posted Stronger S&P 500 Returns
The index rose in all 11 post-midterm periods from 1982 to 2022, averaging 13.7%. Returns varied across shorter and longer windows.
· Investing
- Custodia Asks Supreme Court to Review Federal Reserve Master Account Ruling
Custodia says a 1980 law requires Fed services for eligible nonmember banks. The justices have the case set for a Nov. 13 conference.
· Regulation
- Gold Rises 2.1% as Brent and U.S. Crude Settle More Than 7% Lower
Spot gold reached $3,954.41 an ounce Monday afternoon. Two Fed officials favored a rate increase at the October meeting, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for at least two more.
· Investing
- Surveyed Banks Report Weaker Demand Across All Seven Mortgage Categories
Demand readings were negative for every home-purchase mortgage category in the third quarter. Banks eased standards for two jumbo categories and tightened them for subprime loans.
· Business
- Treasury Cuts Estimate to $618 Billion; Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidity Link Remains Conditional
The Treasury’s $1.015632 trillion balance on Oct. 28 was $165.632 billion above its year-end cash assumption, while weekly average bank reserves declined.
· Investing
- U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands for 10th Straight Month in October
The ISM index rose to 55.5% from 54.5% in September, adding a fresh economic reading to a week of U.S. market events.
· Investing
- Fed’s Broad Dollar Index Was Nearly Flat in Late-October Readings
The Fed’s figures end Oct. 23. A separate six-currency index fell 0.2% on Oct. 30 but rose 0.3% for October.
· Investing
- Client Financing Drove Two-Thirds of Large Dealers’ Issuance-Day Balance-Sheet Growth
Dealers sold almost all auction inventory within three to five days; a separate analysis found reverse repo increases remained measurable during the week after issuance.
· Investing
- Brooks Says Debt Pressure May Shape Warsh’s Rate Stance
The Fed held its target at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 as fiscal 2026 net interest outlays reached about $1.052 trillion, exceeding defense spending.
· Regulation
- BMO Economist Says Slower AI Spending Could Ease Fed Inflation Pressure
Jennifer Lee said a pullback could ease demand for energy, labor and capital, while labor shortages and automation continue to support long-term demand for AI infrastructure.
· Investing
- Bitcoin Shows Larger 30-Minute Moves After Jobs, Core CPI Releases
A study of January 2025 through September 2026 found employment reports were followed by moves about twice the typical size, while core CPI releases registered 1.8 times typical.
· Investing
- Bitcoin Traders Get October CPI Ahead of the Fed’s Final 2026 Meeting
October PCE data is scheduled for Nov. 25, giving policymakers another inflation reading before their Dec. 8-9 meeting.
· Investing
- U.S. Real Estate Stocks Outperform as Treasury Yields Fall in October
The Fed held interest rates steady, while an executive order directed the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to develop a mortgage insurance pilot.
· Investing
- Fed Rate Hike Odds for December Fall to 70.7% in Two Days
The chance of no change stands at 29.3%, leaving a rate increase as the more likely outcome in market pricing.
· Investing
- Dallas Fed’s Logan Says Fed Needs 50 More Basis Points Before a Pause
She supported this week’s 10-2 vote to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%.
· Regulation
- Gold Drops 3.37% as S&P 500 Posts Its Worst Day Since June
Spot gold was $3,884.90 an ounce at 4:07 p.m. ET on Oct. 30. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% and the Dow dropped 1.1%.
· Investing
- Former Richmond Fed President Lacker Says Fed Lacks Inflation Urgency
Lacker said the Fed should have raised rates at its Oct. 28 meeting. He expects further increases and says rates may need to reach near 5% or higher.
· Regulation
- Fed's Lorie Logan Calls for at Least Two More Rate Hikes
She backed a pause after 50 basis points of additional tightening. The Fed held rates this week in a 10-2 vote, with Logan voting to hold.
· Regulation
- Logan Says Fed’s October Hold Does Not Alter Policy Direction
The target range remains 3.75% to 4.00% after September’s 25-basis-point increase, the Fed’s first hike in more than three years.
· Regulation
- Fed’s Musalem Says Another Rate Hike Will Be Needed Before Long
He described monetary policy and broader financial conditions as loose and said inflation is unlikely to ease without Fed action.
· Regulation
- Daly Says AI’s Economic Effects Matter to Fed Policy Analysis
At the San Francisco Fed’s Oct. 30 conference, she pointed to AI’s potential effects on productivity, growth and the labor market as policymakers pursue price stability and full employment.
· Regulation
- Barkin Says AI Construction Is Adding Demand Pressure for the Fed
Barkin described consumer spending as resilient and said officials will watch whether demand pressure persists.
· Regulation