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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Coinbase To Halt Michigan Sports Contracts Under State Deal
New contracts will stop and open positions will close by 12 a.m. ET (4 a.m. UTC) on Oct. 10 as the broader legal fight continues.
· Regulation
- Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Market Reaches $27.36 Million
Trading volume has surpassed last year’s total ahead of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s announcement at 5 a.m. ET (09:00 UTC) on Oct. 9.
· Investing
- NFL Tells Supreme Court Sports Prediction Contracts Are Gambling
The league urged justices to leave sports prediction market oversight to the states in a case involving New Jersey regulators and Kalshi.
· Regulation
- CFTC Expands Crypto, Prediction-Market Rulemaking as FY 2025 Actions Fall 78%
The agency recorded 13 enforcement actions in fiscal 2025, down from 58 a year earlier, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren said its workforce had declined 25% since January 2025.
· Regulation
- Crypto Whale Holds $38.1 Million in Long Positions as Fed Bet Gains
The account holds Bitcoin, Chainlink, Zcash and other crypto longs, alongside a prediction-market position that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October.
· Investing
- Polymarket Odds of Anthropic Fable 5.2 Release by Oct. 12 Fall to 17%
The contract’s implied probability fell 31% over 24 hours to 17% at 2:28 a.m. ET Thursday.
· Investing
- Edward Lee Joins Polymarket as Head of Product for Exchange Business
The former Coinbase and Circle employee will lead product development for Polymarket US and its international on-chain exchange.
· People
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Trails Prediction-Market Rivals in Volume
HIP-4 recorded $317 million in cumulative volume by Oct. 5, but fewer markets, thinner liquidity and a smaller audience continue to limit activity.
· Investing
- Coinbase Appeals for Exclusive Federal Oversight of Prediction Markets
The exchange is asking the Second Circuit to block state-by-state regulation and affirm the CFTC’s authority under the Commodity Exchange Act.
· Regulation
- Verifact Markets Launches Trading Platform for Disputed Past Facts
The Chicago-based company lets eligible users outside the United States trade True or False contracts on contested claims about events that already happened.
· Business
- Polymarket Tests Protocol V2 With pUSD Collateral and Unified Positions
The rebuilt system uses ERC-1155 positions and native USDC for settlement, with canary testing tentatively scheduled through Oct. 30 before a Nov. 2 transition for new markets.
· Technology
- 39 States Ask Supreme Court to Review Kalshi Sports Contracts
The filing backs New Jersey’s petition over whether federal derivatives law overrides state gambling rules for sports-related prediction contracts.
· Regulation
- Four Native American Tribes Launch Kalshi-Powered Prediction Apps
The partnerships offer tribes a way to enter prediction markets without building gaming facilities, amid disagreement over the industry's effect on casino revenue.
· Business
- Polymarket Explores On-Chain Asset Tied to Platform Economics
CEO Shayne Coplan said the concept would have programmable utility. Polymarket US is a CFTC-designated contract market, while Polymarket International is not regulated by the CFTC.
· Business
- Kalshi Gold Contract Count Exceeded Ethereum’s in September
The gold market recorded 542 million contracts and about $5 million in estimated fees, compared with 318 million contracts and $2.6 million for Ethereum.
· Investing
- Abstract Sets Dec. 15 Shutdown as Winklevoss Files for Zcash ETF
Abstract has asked users to move their assets before closing. Coinbase also launched live crypto price prediction markets for selected assets and time windows.
· Technology
- Kalshi Adds Low-Volume Labels and Live Trade Feeds for Election Markets
Brier scores will compare market probabilities with actual outcomes. Markets below $10,000 will receive low-volume labels.
· Business
- Kalshi Combos Bundle Event Outcomes in a Single Position
Each combo uses a dedicated order book and can pay up to $1 per contract, depending on its component positions.
· Business
- Edge Markets Builds Payment Infrastructure for 24/7 Prediction Markets
Its Edge Connect service would let institutional traders pre-authorize collateral transfers when banks are closed. The product is expected to launch later this year.
· Business
- Prediction Markets Log $188 Billion in Q3 Trading Volume
The total was nearly 70% higher than in Q2 and about 21 times the level a year earlier. Sports markets accounted for about 40% of Kalshi’s Q3 volume.
· Investing
- Polymarket Starts Protocol V2 Canary Testing for New Markets
The trial is scheduled to run through Oct. 30, with a tentative Nov. 2 switchover for new markets.
· Technology
- Polymarket Trader Earns $1.16 Million on Sweden Bet
The account was created one day earlier and showed an 84% return on the wager, with a 100% win rate across one trade.
· Investing
- Polymarket Challenges Dutch Ban as Derivatives Classification Dispute Continues
The Dutch Gambling Authority set a €420,000 weekly penalty, capped at €840,000, for failing to stop the service in the Netherlands.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Bitcoin’s October Odds at 56% for a $90,000 Touch
The probability fell 10% in 24 hours. A separate contract put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $87,500 at 77%.
· Investing
- House Bill Would Bar Candidates From Trading on Their Own Elections
Rep. Don Davis introduced the measure Oct. 5 after his opponent Laurie Buckhout was penalized by Kalshi over trades tied to her candidacy.
· Regulation
- Kalshi’s 2027 Recession Market Shows 22% Odds for U.S. Downturn
Yes contracts were priced at 21 cents on Oct. 6. The market listed Jan. 31, 2028, as its maximum payout date.
· Investing
- Polymarket Alpha Group Estimated to Earn About $40 Million Since 2024
The invite-only group has about 30 members. Separately, 69.2% of manually operated accounts on Polymarket’s international platform finished below break-even.
· Investing
- NBA’s Clippers Case Highlights Limits on Players’ Outside Business Ties
The league can regulate player salaries, while business relationships beyond the NBA can raise questions about potential conflicts.
· Business
- New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Review Kalshi Sports Contract Ruling
The state argues that sports event contracts are not swaps under federal commodities law and that federal law does not preempt state gambling rules. The Supreme Court has not agreed to hear the case.
· Regulation
- Sight Advances Prediction Market Layer 2 With SGT Gas Payments
SightEVM would set its own fees, block parameters and capacity while relying on underlying chains for settlement and data availability.
· Technology
- Bitcoin Prediction Markets Put 2026 Odds of Touching $100,000 at 39%
Polymarket’s Bitcoin threshold market shows $72.6 million in volume, while Kalshi’s year-end closing-price market has recorded about $39.5 million.
· Investing
- Coinbase Wins CFTC Approval to Clear Fully Collateralized Derivatives
The registration covers futures, options on futures and swaps. It does not approve any specific market, including prediction markets.
· Regulation
- Bitcoin’s October Market Prices a 64% Chance of Touching $90,000
Separate contracts put the odds of reaching $87,500 at 84% and falling to the $80,000 threshold at 45%.
· Investing
- Kalshi Advances Trading Incentive Program End Date to Oct. 13, 2026
The company filed the date change with the CFTC on Sept. 28, moving the deadline up from Oct. 1, 2027.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Study Finds 69.2% of Retail-Labelled Accounts Lost Money
The analysis covered about 2.9 million accounts on Polymarket’s international platform and tallied $338.9 million in combined losses.
· Investing
- Polymarket Adds Self-Exclusion and Deposit Limits for U.S. Users
Users can pause access for 30 days, one year or indefinitely. The platform introduced mental health support and launched a Trust & Safety Center.
· Business
- Decrypt Announces Solana-Based Information Exchange With MYR
The platform will combine news, data, prices and probabilities with prediction markets, spot trading and other financial products rolling out in stages.
· Business
- CFTC Sends Two Prediction-Market Rules to White House for Review
The filings would define event contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style gambling products. Both remain pending and are not final rules.
· Regulation
- Record U.S. Crude Production May Shift Focus From Diesel Export Ban
Market pricing puts the chance of an announcement at 0.7% by Oct. 1 and 16.5% by Nov. 1, while no White House proposal has reached the Senate.
· Regulation
- CFTC Sends Two Competing Event-Contract Rules to OIRA for Review
The proposals would define whether event contracts fall inside or outside the Commodity Exchange Act’s swap definition.
· Regulation