TokenPost topic
Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- CFTC Filing Index Lists KalshiEX Program Termination Notice
The index entry does not establish the program’s original terms, reason for termination or effective date.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Surge 7,267.37% as Crypto Sectors Diverge
Prediction Markets reached a $7.12 billion market capitalization, while Data Availability fell 9.55% in the 24-hour snapshot recorded Oct. 12.
· Investing
- Polymarket Gives Kimberly Guilfoyle 70% Chance of Leaving U.S. Ambassador Post by Oct. 31
The market measures whether Guilfoyle leaves through resignation or removal, while allegations involving her remain unproven.
· Investing
- CBS News Plans to Show Kalshi Odds in 2026 Midterm Coverage
The network will place market-implied probabilities alongside polls, results and race analysis as prediction markets gain visibility despite limited participation across many congressional contracts.
· Business
- Polymarket US Lists Oct. 11 Daily Market Report for U.S. Exchange
The report covers summary trading data for all contracts traded on Polymarket US and was modified Oct. 12 at 12:15 a.m. UTC.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets See U.S. Inflation Peaking in 2026
September CPI is expected to rise 3.6% year over year, while core inflation is forecast at 2.4%.
· Investing
- Evercore ISI Keeps Robinhood at Buy on Crypto, Tokenized Asset Growth
The firm cited Robinhood’s expansion into digital assets, prediction markets and tokenized assets, along with user growth and business diversification.
· Investing
- CFTC Proposes Federal Swap Rules for Prediction-Market Contracts
The proposals would classify event contracts as swaps while excluding sports betting and casino-style products from the definition.
· Regulation
- Kalshi and Polymarket Set $8.56 Billion Two-Day Volume Record
NFL and NCAA events drove consecutive daily records, while combined weekly volume reached $22.2 billion.
· Investing
- Riyadh Airport Strike Leaves 12 Dead as Saudi-Houthi Tensions Rise
More than 300 people were injured in the Riyadh strike, which temporarily suspended airport operations and deepened regional instability.
· Investing
- Polymarket Prices Bitcoin’s Fall to $80,000 at 63% for October
The probability rose 13% over the past week for a contract covering Bitcoin’s potential decline to $80,000 during the rest of October.
· Investing
- CFTC Excludes Casino Gambling From Swaps and Targets Event Contracts
The commission proposed treating sports, political, cultural and weather contracts as swaps while excluding sportsbooks and casino games from the definition.
· Regulation
- CFTC Proposes Separating Prediction Markets From Casino Gambling
The measures would classify event contracts as swaps while excluding sportsbook wagers and casino games from the definition.
· Regulation
- Saudi Arabia Closes Riyadh Airport After Missile Attack Attributed to Houthis
The evacuation and suspension of airport operations add to regional instability as authorities assess safety and possible damage.
· Investing
- CFTC Proposes Classifying Prediction Contracts as Swaps
The proposal covers sports, politics, culture and weather, while a separate rule would exclude sportsbook and casino wagers from the swap definition.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Put Democratic Sweep Odds Near 60% Ahead of Midterms
An Oct. 10 snapshot showed a 62% sweep probability, while later figures showed 64% and 60% in two markets.
· Regulation
- Prediction Markets Gain Ground as Finance Firms Build Around Event Contracts
Kalshi’s federal designation, Polymarket’s $1.4 million penalty and ICE’s planned investment highlight a market expanding beyond betting, while its infrastructure potential remains unproven.
· Business
- NCPG CEO Heather Maurer Resigns After Kalshi’s $2 Million Contribution
Maurer will leave the National Council on Problem Gambling on Oct. 16 after less than 10 months as several state groups and regulators cut ties over the contribution.
· People
- Bitcoin’s 2026 $200,000 Odds Stand at 1% on Polymarket
The contract showed $2.09 million in volume, while lower price targets carried higher implied probabilities.
· Investing
- Kalshi Hires Former FBI Agent to Lead Anti-Money-Laundering Team
Sean Fern will build the prediction-market company’s first anti-money-laundering team as Kalshi faces scrutiny over alleged insider trading and market manipulation.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Investigates Trades Before White House Press Secretary Appointment
Katie Zacharia was priced at about 1% before President Donald Trump confirmed her appointment Oct. 9. Three bets could pay thousands of dollars if settled successfully.
· Regulation
- CFTC Draws Line Between Gambling and Prediction-Market Contracts
An interim final rule excludes traditional sports wagers and casino games from the swap definition, while a separate proposal would classify several event contracts as swaps.
· Regulation
- NEXTPredict Arranges $12,000 Hedge for Up to $3 Million in Flight Cancellations
The event contracts would return the summit’s cost if more than half of flights scheduled to arrive at JFK on Oct. 21 are canceled.
· Business
- CFTC Excludes Casino-Style Wagers From the Swap Definition
The move preserves room for prediction-market activity while leaving existing compliance obligations unchanged.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Market Did Not List 2026 Nobel Winner as Candidate
South African jurist Navanethem “Navi” Pillay won the prize after her outcome appeared only under an “other person or organization” contract.
· Investing
- Musk Says SpaceX Could Reach a $1 Quadrillion Valuation
Musk also put the likelihood of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before 2028 at 65%, while related contracts showed mixed odds for possible announcement dates.
· Business
- OpenAI IPO Odds Fall to 55.4% After Company Rules Out 2026 Listing
A prediction market gives OpenAI a 23.5% chance of having no IPO by Dec. 31, 2027, with $409,002 in total volume.
· Investing
- NBA Seeks Prediction-Market Data to Protect Game Integrity
Commissioner Adam Silver backed consistent federal oversight of prediction-market platforms and a minimum trading age of 21.
· Regulation
- Blockchain.com Seeks CFTC Approval for U.S. Event Contracts, Derivatives
The company applied for licenses to serve retail and institutional customers with prediction markets and cryptocurrency derivatives.
· Regulation
- Morgan Stanley Double-Upgrades Cboe After S&P Contract Extension
The firm raised its price target to $358 from $258 after Cboe extended its exclusive S&P 500 options agreement through 2051.
· Investing
- Cross-Market Trader 58bro.eth Earns $2.29 Million in Seven Days
The trader has earned about $34 million on Hyperliquid with an 89% win rate and used Bitcoin prediction-market positions to express an expected price range.
· Investing
- Galaxy Webinar Examines Prediction Markets Ahead of 2026 U.S. Midterms
The Oct. 8 discussion covered how prediction markets may complement hedging strategies and the infrastructure needed for institutional participation.
· Business
- Coinbase Appeals Connecticut Ruling Over Sports-Event Contracts
The exchange argues the contracts are federally regulated swaps, while Connecticut classifies them as sports wagers under state gambling law.
· Regulation
- NFL Backs State Oversight of Prediction-Market Sports Betting
The league urged the Supreme Court to reject exclusive federal authority for the CFTC over sports contracts offered by Kalshi, Polymarket and similar platforms.
· Regulation
- NFL Urges Supreme Court To Let States Regulate Kalshi Sports Bets
The league backed New Jersey’s petition in a case that could determine whether state gambling laws apply to prediction-market contracts.
· Regulation
- NFL Files Supreme Court Brief Opposing Federal Prediction-Market Oversight
The league joins opposition to federal regulation of markets including Kalshi and Polymarket as the case moves toward a possible final ruling.
· Regulation
- NFL Asks Supreme Court to Review Federal Sports Betting Oversight
The league backed New Jersey’s challenge to Kalshi’s prediction-market contracts, arguing sports event wagers belong under state gambling rules.
· Regulation
- Bitcoin’s 2026 Odds of Reaching $100,000 Rise to 40%
Bitcoin traded near $84,000, down about 2% in 24 hours, as the probability remained below even odds.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets See Gas Prices Above $4 on Election Day
Contracts assign an 87% chance that the national gasoline average will stay above $4 per gallon on Nov. 3, while diesel has a 68% chance of remaining above $6.
· Investing
- Google Holds 43% Chance of Leading AI Models by End of 2026
A prediction market narrowly favors Google over Anthropic, while Gemini 4 Argon currently ranks first on a preliminary text leaderboard.
· Technology