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Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Polymarket Contract Put Tesla-SpaceX Merger or Acquisition Odds at 23%
The Oct. 21 snapshot covered announcements by Dec. 31, 2026. A qualifying deal does not need to close by that deadline.
· Investing
- predict.fun Opens Six 15-Minute Up-or-Down Prediction Markets
The markets cover UNITREE, ZHIPU, SKHYNIX, SNDK, XAU and CL. CL is identified as crude oil.
· Investing
- Utah Sues Kalshi to Block Event Contracts and Recover Millions in Fees
The state seeks about $30 million to $60 million in fees. Its lawsuit also seeks to stop Kalshi from offering several types of event contracts in Utah.
· Regulation
- XRP year-end $2 odds rise 5 percentage points in a day to 27%
XRP's year-end $2 probability rose 5 percentage points to 27%. Bitcoin's year-end $100,000 odds stood at 24%, while Ethereum's $3,500 probability reached 16%.
· Investing
- Kalshi Prices Marine Le Pen’s 2027 Election Odds at 53%
Her price rose from 39% over the past month as protests spread across France. Another contender’s price fell sharply over the same period.
· Investing
- Binance Wallet Adds NBA Match Alerts to Prediction Markets Interface
Binance Coin (BNB) traded at $744.67 in an Oct. 21 snapshot, up 1.85% over 24 hours. Prediction market orders use USDT.
· Business
- Utah Seeks Kalshi Profits, Estimates Up to $61.2 Million in Fees
The civil suit also names two Susquehanna trading firms. The fee figure is an estimate, not a fixed damages demand.
· Regulation
- Crypto Contracts Accounted for $7.3B of July Prediction Market Volume
Sports contracts generated $42.01 billion, or 79.3% of the month’s $52.99 billion in combined volume.
· Investing
- DefiLlama and Trueo Add Markets for DeFi Revenue and Exploit Risk
Revenue markets include Hyperliquid, Aave and Uniswap. Other markets cover possible exploits at Aave and Morpho and the size of hacking events.
· Investing
- OpenAI Valuation Contract Sets a $1.25 Trillion Year-End Test
The proposed financing had not been announced as closed as of Oct. 19. The contract also accounts for an IPO or direct listing.
· Investing
- Polymarket US Records $8.7 Billion in September Contract Volume
Sports contracts represented 99.4% of trading since the venue launched; combination contracts exceeded half of volume in the final full week of September.
· Investing
- Utah Sues Kalshi, Seeks Court Order Blocking Sports Prediction Markets
The state also seeks financial relief and estimates fees tied to the challenged contracts at $30.6 million to $61.2 million.
· Regulation
- Outpoll Announces Perpetual Futures for Prediction Market Platform
The announced lineup includes crypto, stock- and index-linked, and commodity pairs. Outpoll’s terms bar specified U.S. users from its site.
· Business
- Utah Sues Kalshi and Susquehanna Firms to Halt Alleged Illegal Betting
Utah seeks injunctions, restitution and profits, alleging market makers helped sustain wagering after Kalshi lost in federal court.
· Regulation
- Utah Sues Kalshi Over Alleged Gambling, Seeks to Halt State Markets
The state seeks to recover up to $60 million and says Kalshi has served more than 32,000 verified Utah users.
· Regulation
- Midterm Prediction Markets Reach $221 Million Ahead of Nov. 3 Vote
Contracts covering 460 of 470 seats drew trading by Aug. 10, but many congressional markets remain thin.
· Investing
- Sports Outpace Election Bets as Kalshi, Polymarket Hit $53 Billion
Political contracts averaged about $2 billion a month on Polymarket and less than $300 million on Kalshi this year.
· Investing
- Crypto.com Exchange and OG.com Plan Institutional Access Through River Markets
The preliminary agreement would connect eligible U.S. clients to digital-asset spot-market liquidity and regulated event contracts.
· Business
- Polymarket US Lists Sports and Crypto Event Contracts Alongside Kalshi
QCX LLC operates the exchange under a CFTC designation. A pending Supreme Court petition asks whether states can apply gambling rules to sports event contracts.
· Business
- Polymarket Prices Democratic House Win at 92%, Senate Win at 64%
A separate market priced a Democratic sweep at 64%, compared with 62% in an Oct. 10 snapshot.
· Investing
- Kalshi Pitches Brokers on Shared Event-Contract Order Book
tastytrade began offering Kalshi contracts through Apex Fintech Solutions on July 27. Firms trading on or joining Kalshi manage more than $1 trillion in combined assets.
· Business
- Kalshi Weekly Volume Reaches Record $21.52 Billion, Led by Combos
More than 100 million trades took place during the seven-day UTC reporting period. Crypto-category contracts contributed about $2.58 billion.
· Investing
- Tokenized Assets Climb 102.51% to Lead Crypto Sector Gains
Real World Assets rose 47.52%, while Prediction Markets fell 5.42%. The snapshot covered sectors with market caps of at least $2 billion at 11:07 p.m. ET Oct. 19 (03:07 UTC Oct. 20).
· Investing
- Missouri Orders Six Platforms to Halt Sports Contracts or Meet State Rules
The September letters set response deadlines of Friday, Oct. 16, and Saturday, Oct. 17. Operators tied to Novig and Crypto.com filed federal challenges on Oct. 16.
· Regulation
- Los Angeles Bar Group Uses $60,000 Kalshi Position to Hedge Playoff Risk
The operator runs 25 bars, some near Dodger Stadium. Its position returned almost twice its original amount after Milwaukee swept Los Angeles.
· Business
- Anthropic Leads 2026 IPO Announcement Market With 75% Odds
OpenAI’s comparable contract stood at 3%. The number of U.S. IPOs priced this year was down 33% from 2025, even as proceeds rose.
· Investing
- Talos Launches Kalshi Event-Contract Trading for Institutions
Clients can use four Talos execution tools for event contracts and view standardized market data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
· Business
- Polymarket Shows July as First Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Deadline Above 50%
At 2:14 p.m. ET Oct. 19 (18:14 UTC), the July contract stood at 52%, while June was at 49%.
· Investing
- XRP’s year-end $2 odds fall 7 points in a day to 22%
XRP’s year-end odds of reaching $2 fell 7 percentage points to 22%. Bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100,000 by year-end was 24%, while Ether’s odds of hitting $3,500 rose to 16%.
· Investing
- Egypt Approves Troop Deployment to Support Saudi Arabia
The Egyptian presidency has not publicly confirmed deployment specifics. Prediction-market contracts put the odds of Houthi forces entering Aden at 2.8% by Oct. 31.
· Regulation
- Crypto.com and Novig Sue Missouri to Block Sports Contract Rules
The companies say federal commodities law gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority over their event contracts.
· Regulation
- Flights Suspended at Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International Airport
Market contracts priced a formal Saudi airspace closure at 4.5% for Nov. 1 and 16.5% for Jan. 1, 2027.
· Investing
- Most Americans Oppose Election Bets as Kalshi Touts Their Information Value
The survey also found 75% viewed event wagering as gambling and 88% said it was inappropriate for members of Congress and staff to bet on political events.
· Regulation
- XRP’s year-end $2 odds jump 13 points in a day to 30%
XRP’s year-end probability of reaching $2 rose 13 percentage points in one day to 30%. Bitcoin’s odds of hitting $100,000 by year-end held at 24%, while ether’s chance of reaching $3,500 fell to 14%.
· Investing
- OpenAI Bankruptcy Contracts Show 7.5% Odds for 2028 and 21.5% for 2030
An Oct. 18 snapshot listed odds of 16.5% for the contract dated Jan. 1, 2029.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Put Saudi Airspace Closure Odds at 16.5% for January
A live snapshot dated Oct. 18 showed a 4.5% reading for Nov. 1 and a 16.5% reading for Jan. 1, 2027.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Lead Crypto Sectors With 3.56% Gain in Oct. 17 Snapshot
Oracle fell 2.79%, the steepest drop among 10 sectors with market capitalizations of at least $2 billion.
· Investing
- Yemen Clashes Bring Local Gains Near Al-Labanat Without Shifting Control
Houthi forces retain significant territory in western Al-Jawf and northern Yemen. Market-implied odds of Houthi forces entering Aden by Dec. 1 stood at 14.5%.
· Investing
- XRP’s year-end $2 odds rise 2 points in a day to 20%
XRP’s odds of reaching $2 by year-end rose 2 percentage points to 20%. Bitcoin’s year-end $100,000 probability stood at 24%, while Ether’s chance of reaching $3,500 was 16%.
· Investing
- Prediction Markets Fall 7.56% as Tokenized Private Credit Gains
Prediction Markets had a $6.43 billion market capitalization. Tokenized Private Credit rose 0.69% to $24.82 billion, the strongest gain in the snapshot.
· Investing