TokenPost topic
Prediction Markets
505 TokenPost stories are tagged Prediction Markets. The newest appear first.
Latest Prediction Markets stories
- Kalshi Market Puts Anna Kelly Among White House Press Secretary Contenders
Kelly is the White House principal deputy press secretary. Katie Zacharia’s tenure in the job lasted five days, and President Donald Trump has indicated he is not rushing to name a successor.
· People
- Kalshi, Polymarket Set $2.7 Billion Weekly Crypto-Contract Volume Record
Short-cycle Bitcoin up-or-down markets were especially active. A single trade in Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contracts can exceed $1 million.
· Investing
- Mackenzie Says Robinhood’s Bitcoin, Gold and Crude Oil Contracts Grow Fastest
Sports remains Robinhood’s largest prediction-market category. Its largest event contract in September concerned the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
· Business
- Phantom’s U.S. Kalshi Markets Charge 2 Cents in Trading Fees per Contract
Phantom charges $0.01 per contract and Kalshi adds $0.01. Users also pay a variable network fee when transferring funds to the exchange.
· Business
- XRP year-end $2 odds hold at 24% as Bitcoin's $100,000 probability slips to 22%
XRP's year-end $2 probability held at 24%, while Bitcoin's $100,000 odds fell to 22%. Ethereum's year-end $3,500 probability slipped to 15%.
· Investing
- Phantom Begins Gradual U.S. Kalshi Rollout as CFTC Reviews Oil Perpetual
Users trade through Phantom while Kalshi manages accounts and market outcomes. Kalshi’s proposed no-expiry WTI contract remains pending before the CFTC.
· Regulation
- Odds of PAPER's FDV Topping $25 Million Fall to 52% in a Week
The odds concern whether PAPER’s fully diluted valuation would exceed $25 million one day after launch; they stood at 95% a week earlier.
· Investing
- Prediction Market Prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 65% to Win Amapá
The Oct. 23 market snapshot concerns a regional contest. TokenPost previously covered a separate national runoff projection at 85%.
· Investing
- InsightX Secures Strategic Funding; Volume Tops $1.157B as of Oct. 20
The investment from Aurumx Capital and Becker Ventures brings InsightX's cumulative funding to $7.4 million.
· Business
- Robinhood’s Most Popular September 2026 Contract Tied to Fed Rate Decision
JB Mackenzie also described Bitcoin, gold and crude-oil price contracts as among Robinhood’s fastest-growing products. Event-contract trading and revenue each rose more than tenfold year over year in the second quarte…
· Investing
- CFTC Says It Is Watching Prediction Markets for Manipulation
The agency made the statement Oct. 23, citing possible manipulation as the focus of its monitoring.
· Regulation
- Phantom Begins Kalshi Rollout With Temporary Market Limits in Some States
The U.S. rollout began Oct. 23, with access set to expand over the coming weeks. Some sports, election, political and other contracts are temporarily restricted in certain states.
· Regulation
- Hegseth Bars Pentagon Staff From Trading on Nonpublic Intelligence
The memo covers classified and unclassified information and all financial transactions, including military-event wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Odds of WTI Crude Rising Above $110 by Month-End at 34%
The probability reading was recorded at 12:54 p.m. ET Friday, Oct. 23; it is not a quoted crude price.
· Investing
- Hegseth Bars Pentagon Personnel From Betting With Nonpublic Military Information
A Tuesday memo covers classified and unclassified information and includes platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Puts Bitcoin’s October $85,000 Touch Odds at 41%
The reading was down 10% over 24 hours as of 7:49 a.m. ET Friday. The contract tracks Binance’s BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs through Oct. 31.
· Investing
- Trueo Puts DefiLlama Data Into 20 Live Prediction Markets With Defined Rules
The markets cover protocol revenue, security events and other onchain measures. One Hyperliquid contract tests whether October revenue exceeds $60 million.
· Investing
- XRP year-end $2 odds fall 4 percentage points in a day to 21%
XRP's year-end $2 probability fell to 21% from 25% a day earlier. Bitcoin's year-end $100,000 odds stood at 24%, while Ethereum's $3,500 odds were 16%.
· Investing
- Crypto.com Appoints Mohammed Mortajine as Chief Compliance Officer
His previous compliance programs covered more than 200 countries and territories and involved teams across multiple jurisdictions.
· People
- Underdog Plans Crypto Deposits for Prediction-Market Accounts
The service is expected later in 2026; supported assets have not been named.
· Business
- Eric Schmidt Says AI Could Cut One-Fifth of Jobs at Large Firms
He expects planning and coordination roles to face early cuts. A 20% reduction at a 10,000-person company would mean 2,000 jobs.
· People
- Analyst James Seyffart Expects SEC Approval for Prediction Market ETFs
Filings exist for funds that would hold prediction-market contracts, while the SEC is separately assessing what may be allowed in the market.
· Regulation
- Predict.fun Opens Markets for the Next Eight LoL Worlds Matches
The Swiss Stage runs from Oct. 23–31. The promotion offers a $250,000 prize pool payable in Tether (USDT).
· Investing
- Noise Opens 100 Test Slots for iOS App Testing Through TestFlight
The prediction-market information platform plans to add more slots during the week.
· Business
- Polymarket Odds for Anthropic Fable Model by Month-End Fall to 38%
The implied probability fell 30% over 24 hours. The contract requires a model named Fable with version 5.2 or later.
· Investing
- Polymarket Puts 3% Odds on Bitcoin Reaching $130,000 in 2026
A separate Deribit options estimate put the chance of Bitcoin touching $100,000 by year-end at 20% to 25%; the markets track different thresholds.
· Investing
- Democrats Have 92% Implied Odds to Win House Control in 2026 Midterms
Democrats also have a 66% chance of winning the Senate and a 59% chance in the 2028 presidential election.
· Investing
- Unhedged Adds AI Trading Tools While Barring U.S. Users
Its MCP server has 37 tools and eight workflow prompts, with scoped API keys controlling account and trading functions.
· Technology
- Standard Chartered and Kalshi Executives Listed for London Summit
The 15th edition’s planned roundtables include digital assets, prediction markets, market liquidity, payments and stablecoins, and tokenization.
· Business
- Anthropic’s Year-End IPO Odds Climb to 86% From 74% Overnight
The market-implied chance of an IPO before 2027 rose 12 percentage points in one night.
· Business
- IG Group Plans U.K. Prediction Markets, With Underdog Deal Worth Up to About $1.3 Billion
Financial event contracts are planned for professional clients in Q4 2026, with politics, entertainment and sports markets to follow in early 2027.
· Business
- Polymarket Odds Put Predict.fun FDV One Day After Launch Above $800 Million
On Thursday, Oct. 22, the market showed a 74% probability at 1:19 a.m. ET (05:19 UTC), up 60% over 24 hours.
· Investing
- Polymarket Challenges Ohio Sports Rules After New CFTC Actions
Polymarket US filed suit on Ohio’s Oct. 16 compliance deadline. The complaint argues two Oct. 9 CFTC actions changed the legal backdrop after a Sept. 25 appeals ruling against Kalshi.
· Regulation
- XRP year-end $2 odds rise 4 percentage points to 22% in prediction markets
XRP’s year-end $2 probability rose 4 percentage points to 22%, while Bitcoin’s $100,000 odds climbed to 27%. October probabilities declined across Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.
· Investing
- A 100-Contract Taker Trade Leaves $20 in Gross Profit Before Fees
Buying 100 contracts at 40 cents costs $40; selling at 60 cents returns $60. Resting orders and funding methods can change the cost comparison.
· Investing
- Polymarket US Seeks Court Order Against Ohio Sports Contract Halt
Ohio demanded an immediate halt and written confirmation by Oct. 16. The company is seeking preliminary and permanent injunctions.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Prices Defined AI Downturn Odds at 9.4% by Dec. 31, 2026
The contract resolves “Yes” only if at least three of six specified conditions occur within one 90-day window ending by the deadline.
· Investing
- Probly Completes Gold Sponsorship of TOKEN2049 Singapore
Its first partner channel on TxFlow is running on testnet as `exchangeId: 1`.
· Business
- Polymarket’s Solana $110 Odds Rise 16 Percentage Points to 70%
The market’s time frame is month-end. Separately, Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade targets transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds, down from roughly 12.8 seconds.
· Investing
- OKX Participants Predict Earnings Beats for Tesla and Meta
About 83% of participants also predicted Tesla shares would rise after its report, compared with 80% for Meta.
· Investing