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U.S. Midterm Elections
107 TokenPost stories are tagged U.S. Midterm Elections. The newest appear first.
Latest U.S. Midterm Elections stories
- Tyler D Sees Slower Crypto Legislation Under Democratic Sweep
VirtualBacon expects the election to affect sentiment more than crypto regulation’s long-term direction. The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate.
· Regulation
- Divided Government Cases Posted Stronger S&P 500 Returns
The index rose in all 11 post-midterm periods from 1982 to 2022, averaging 13.7%. Returns varied across shorter and longer windows.
· Investing
- Polls Put Democrats Ahead 8.9 Points Before Nov. 3 Midterms
A separate market priced a Democratic House takeover at 96%. A 3.5-point polling overestimate would still leave Republicans in control of the Senate.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Buys Contracts on Democrats Not Controlling Both Chambers
The account had $82,500 in cumulative losses. The contract settles on control of the House and Senate after the Nov. 3 midterms.
· Investing
- JPMorgan Gives Democratic Sweep 66% Odds; S&P 500 Best Case Is GOP Hold
The bank projects a 1% to 1.25% S&P 500 gain if Republicans retain both chambers, a scenario it assigns a 7% probability.
· Investing
- Bitcoin Lows Followed Three Midterms as S&P 500 Gained in 21 Periods
The three latest Bitcoin cycle lows came 13 to 71 days after midterm voting. The S&P 500’s average gain across the 21 periods was 16.6%.
· Investing
- Polymarket Midterm Odds Rise 10 Percentage Points as Trader Adds Hyperliquid Position
On election eve, a trader put about $84,200 into positions tied to a congressional-control outcome, then opened a new Hyperliquid position about six hours later.
· Investing
- XRP Escrow Cycle Leaves 300 Million Tokens Outside Escrow Before Midterms
Two releases totaled 1 billion XRP on Oct. 31; three new escrows took in 700 million XRP on Nov. 1, with unlocks scheduled for 2029.
· Investing
- S&P 500 Rose After All 11 Midterms in a 1982-2022 Sample
The periods averaged a 13.7% gain. A separate calculation found a 15.1% average one-year price return after midterms since 1950.
· Investing
- Goldman Sachs Sees a Chance of AI Legislation After Midterms
The bank expects sweeping federal restrictions to remain unlikely regardless of the election outcome.
· Regulation
- Kalshi Prices Democratic Sweep at 71% Ahead of Nov. 3 Midterms
The congressional balance-of-power market’s figure was a market price, not an election result.
· Investing
- Technology Stocks Lead U.S. Futures Higher as Investors Weigh Catalysts
Lower oil prices offered relief after a weak week for AI investments. Investors are watching October manufacturing data, Apple earnings and the U.S. midterm elections this week.
· Investing
- Bitcoin (BTC) Options Price 43.5% Implied Volatility for Nov. 4 Expiry
Later Bitcoin expirations show about 36% implied volatility, while Ether's curve points to about 36% by late November.
· Investing
- Bybit Learn Shares Livestream Replay Ahead of U.S. Midterm Vote
The Monday session listed analysts from Bybit, Block Scholes and Glassnode and was advertised to cover crypto regulation, Bitcoin and market volatility.
· Investing
- OpenAI and Anthropic Prepare Election Teams for U.S. Midterms
The plans mark a first for both companies.
· Technology
- Five Hyperliquid Addresses Take Crude Positions Before U.S. Midterms
Brent crude fell about 3.2% to $109.75 a barrel as talks between Iran and Qatar raised expectations for a ceasefire.
· Investing
- Goldman Sachs Lifts December Brent Forecast to $105 a Barrel
The bank also raised its broader oil outlook for year-end and 2027 as crude-supply concerns grew and markets priced in post-election escalation risk.
· Investing
- Polymarket Account Buys 493,551.7 Shares on GOP Senate Control
The account's average opening price was 29.7 cents per share, and its cumulative losses exceeded $600,000.
· Investing
- S&P 500 Rose in 95% of 12-Month Periods After Midterms Since 1938
The average return in the year after midterms was about 14%, compared with about 5% during the midterm election year.
· Investing
- Bitcoin's Three Previous Cycle Lows Came 13 to 71 Days After U.S. Midterms
The next U.S. midterm election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.
· Investing
- Société Générale Says U.S. Events May Support Credit or Avoid a Setback
Company results have helped lift investment-grade and high-yield debt, while geopolitical tensions, oil prices and bond-yield swings remain risks.
· Investing
- U.S. Midterms Coincide With Five Days of Economic Releases
The Nov. 3 vote falls during a week of U.S. manufacturing, labor and productivity reports, with AMD results also due.
· Investing
- AI Data Center Support Drew Boos at Brooklyn Midterm Event
Data centers came up beyond a scheduled electricity-bill panel, and Newsreel founder Jack Brewster said they surfaced in every onstage conversation.
· Regulation
- U.S. Midterms Could Shift CLARITY Act’s Path After Senate Setback
Voters will choose all 435 House members and about one-third of Senate seats Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. The bill remains stalled after a failed Senate procedural vote.
· Regulation
- Palantir, AMD Earnings Join Midterms and Jobs Report Next Week
Palantir reports after the close Nov. 2, AMD and congressional elections fall Nov. 3, and the October jobs report is due Nov. 6. Jim Cramer warned that volatility may persist.
· Investing
- Polymarket Developers Delay Protocol V2 Launch to Nov. 9
The revised date moves the planned release past U.S. midterm election week. A final rollout schedule is expected in the coming days.
· Technology
- Grayscale Says U.S. Midterms Won’t Shift Crypto’s Global Course
Grayscale estimates the U.S. share of global crypto activity at 15% to 20%, with individual measures ranging from 15% of spot trading to 36% of Bitcoin hashrate.
· Investing
- U.S. Democrats Seen Likely to Retake House as Senate Race Tightens Before Midterms
The Senate contest has tightened over the past month, and the chance of Democratic control of both chambers has risen. The outcome could shape debates over Iran, tariffs and 2027 funding.
· Regulation
- Survey Finds Nearly Half of Investors Concerned About Midterm Market Impact
The S&P 500 posted positive six-month price returns after all 13 midterms since 1974, while midterm years had higher median volatility than other years.
· Investing
- Kalshi and Polymarket US Top Monthly Volume Records Before Month-End
October month-to-date figures put Kalshi at about $65 billion and Polymarket US at $10 billion. The totals do not identify how much activity came from election contracts.
· Investing
- U.S. Midterms Push Investors to Reassess the 2028 Policy Outlook
If Democrats win both chambers, legislative gridlock could intensify around the budget, debt ceiling and AI data center rules. Investors are also watching the 2028 campaign and foreign policy.
· Investing
- SMBC Sees Limited Treasury Impact From U.S. Midterm Election
A Democratic sweep could add $1.5 trillion in health spending over 10 years; restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies could cost $80 billion over three years and $350 billion over 10 years.
· Investing
- NEXTPredict’s JFK Hedge Resolves No as Summit Debates Market Limits
The $12,000 Kalshi contract covered cancellations across arrivals and departures at JFK. Speakers also questioned how much confidence journalists should place in market prices.
· Business
- 53 of 58 Fairshake-Backed Candidates Advance in U.S. Midterms
Crypto interests have spent about $176 million across more than 100 U.S. midterm contests. Fairshake, supported by Coinbase, Ripple and a16z, led the spending.
· Regulation
- Polymarket Investigated Dozens of Midterm Trades; At Least Two Reach CFTC
A 16-person team led by Shana Bautista is using a new election-monitoring system that generates hundreds of alerts daily.
· Regulation
- S&P 500 Rose in 21 Midterm Election Cycles, Averaging 16.6%
Each historical period ran from November of a midterm election year through the following June. The 2026 U.S. midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3.
· Investing
- Ali Martinez Lists Bitcoin Drawdowns Across Four Midterm Cycles
His Oct. 24 post gave declines of 27% to 72% but did not specify the measurement windows. Separate comparisons track fourth-quarter and 12-month returns.
· Investing
- U.S. Adds Forces Near Iran Ahead of Possible Post-Election Strikes
A third carrier strike group and 10,000 additional sailors and Marines are heading toward the Persian Gulf; the timing of any renewed strikes is uncertain.
· Investing
- Benjamin Cowen Sees Mid-November Bitcoin Low If Pattern Holds
He also sees a possible local high from Oct. 21 to Nov. 3 if the pattern continues, but gave no exact date or price target for the low.
· Investing
- Stand With Crypto Leader Expects Most Pro-Bitcoin Congress Yet
Mason Lynaugh tied his outlook to crypto voters’ potential influence in close races and described a network with 3.1 million advocates, 45 endorsements and 50 state chapters.
· Regulation